Balkan Botevgrad vs. Basquet Manresa

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Basquet Manresa (43%) · Basquet Manresa at 96¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 3

Balkan Botevgrad5¢Basquet Manresa95¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Basquet Manresa

Consensus Traders

Basquet Manresa 43%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$93.13

Smart Money Entry

70.5¢ → 95.5¢

+36% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidBasquet Manresa at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Basquet Manresa

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Balkan Botevgrad5%

Basquet Manresa96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Basquet Manresa3 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,123

Combined PnL-$66.72

Balkan Botevgrad4 traders

Total Value$109.91

Total Shares688

Combined PnL-$26.42

Basquet Manresa — 43%Balkan Botevgrad — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Basquet Manresaavg 66.3¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$4.07	50% 32601-32144 (64745)
LS LSS1	Basquet Manresaavg 83.9¢	$411.63	$338.47	-$73.16	72% 1534-600 (2134)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Balkan Botevgradavg 17.7¢	$77.5	$70.2	-$7.3	49% 18415-18835 (37250)
HRTrading<$100	Basquet Manresaavg 70.9¢	$39.1	$41.47	+$2.37	54% 2609-2230 (4839)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Balkan Botevgradavg 16.2¢	$39.8	$23.84	-$1.43	58% 40420-29201 (69621)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Balkan Botevgradavg 32.1¢	$22.46	$13.62	-$8.83	52% 5822-5445 (11267)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Balkan Botevgradavg 37¢	$11.1	$2.25	-$8.85	59% 29934-20654 (50588)

SnakeBall

Basquet Manresa

Invested

$1,661.85

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$4.07

Record

50%

32601-32144 (64745)

LSS1

Basquet Manresa

Invested

$411.63

Value

$338.47

PnL

-$73.16

Record

72%

1534-600 (2134)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Balkan Botevgrad

Invested

$77.5

Value

$70.2

PnL

-$7.3

Record

49%

18415-18835 (37250)

HRTrading<$100

Basquet Manresa

Invested

$39.1

Value

$41.47

PnL

+$2.37

Record

54%

2609-2230 (4839)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Balkan Botevgrad

Invested

$39.8

Value

$23.84

PnL

-$1.43

Record

58%

40420-29201 (69621)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Balkan Botevgrad

Invested

$22.46

Value

$13.62

PnL

-$8.83

Record

52%

5822-5445 (11267)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Balkan Botevgrad

Invested

$11.1

Value

$2.25

PnL

-$8.85

Record

59%

29934-20654 (50588)

Research grade

AvoidBasquet Manresa at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Basquet Manresa

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Basquet Manresa wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.