Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold PAOK BC, while the market favors Bahcesehir Koleji (50%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Bahcesehir Koleji (-3.5)

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold PAOK BC (60%) · PAOK BC at 50¢ · $701 held · ended Oct 27

Bahcesehir Koleji50¢PAOK BC50¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

PAOK BC

Consensus Traders

PAOK BC 60%

Total Value

$700.67

Combined PnL

-$531.83

Smart Money Entry

93.3¢ → 50¢

-46% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidPAOK BC at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

PAOK BC

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Bahcesehir Koleji 50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Bahcesehir Koleji50%

PAOK BC50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

PAOK BC3 traders

Total Value$547.63

Total Shares1,228

Combined PnL-$597.42

Bahcesehir Koleji2 traders

Total Value$153.04

Total Shares273

Combined PnL+$65.59

PAOK BC — 60%Bahcesehir Koleji — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105CTR	PAOK BCavg 99¢	$1.1K	$484	-$605	95% 22786-1146 (23932)
HRTrading<$100	Bahcesehir Kolejiavg 6.4¢	$10.96	$95.65	+$84.69	54% 2609-2230 (4839)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	PAOK BCavg 44.8¢	$55.06	$61.43	+$6.38	59% 29934-20654 (50588)
VeryLucky888	Bahcesehir Kolejiavg 56.9¢	$219.16	$57.39	-$19.1	58% 40420-29201 (69621)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	PAOK BCavg 20¢	$1	$2.2	+$1.2	50% 7576-7601 (15177)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105CTR

PAOK BC

Invested

$1,089

Value

$484

PnL

-$605

Record

95%

22786-1146 (23932)

HRTrading<$100

Bahcesehir Koleji

Invested

$10.96

Value

$95.65

PnL

+$84.69

Record

54%

2609-2230 (4839)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

PAOK BC

Invested

$55.06

Value

$61.43

PnL

+$6.38

Record

59%

29934-20654 (50588)

VeryLucky888

Bahcesehir Koleji

Invested

$219.16

Value

$57.39

PnL

-$19.1

Record

58%

40420-29201 (69621)

RLWGCTR<$100

PAOK BC

Invested

Value

$2.2

PnL

+$1.2

Record

50%

7576-7601 (15177)

Research grade

AvoidPAOK BC at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

PAOK BC

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Bahcesehir Koleji 50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that PAOK BC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.2%

50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$91.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

191.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.