Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold PAOK BC, while the market favors Bahcesehir Koleji (64%). 1 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Bahcesehir Koleji vs. PAOK BC
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold PAOK BC (50%) · PAOK BC at 36¢ · $131 held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
PAOK BC
2
PAOK BC 50%
1 arb excluded
$130.9
$0
Research grade
AvoidPAOK BC at 36%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Bahcesehir Koleji 64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888ARB<$100 | Bahcesehir Kolejiavg 64¢ | $109.33 | $87.16 | +$4.91 | 58% 40382-29168 (69550) |
| └ Bahcesehir Koleji leg | Bahcesehir Kolejiavg 64¢ | $52.16 | $52.16 | +$0 | |
| └ PAOK BC leg | PAOK BCavg 32.5¢ | $31.62 | $35 | +$4.91 | |
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100 | PAOK BCavg 36¢ | $29.34 | $29.34 | +$0 | 50% 3672-3647 (7319) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Bahcesehir Kolejiavg 64¢ | $14.4 | $14.4 | +$0 | 50% 32578-32115 (64693) |
VeryLucky888ARB<$100Invested
$109.33
Value
$87.16
PnL
+$4.91
Record
58%
40382-29168 (69550)
Both legs:
Invested
$29.34
Value
$29.34
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
3672-3647 (7319)
Invested
$14.4
Value
$14.4
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
32578-32115 (64693)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.