BC Aris Thessaloniki vs. KK Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold BC Aris Thessaloniki (100%) · BC Aris Thessaloniki at 84¢ · $828 held · ends Nov 4
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Avoid
BC Aris Thessaloniki
2
BC Aris Thessaloniki 100%
1 arb excluded
$828.39
$2.09
Research grade
AvoidBC Aris Thessaloniki at 84%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBallARB<$100 | BC Aris Thessalonikiavg 75¢ | $695.75 | $748.56 | +$52.81 | 50% 32798-32351 (65149) |
| └ BC Aris Thessaloniki leg | BC Aris Thessalonikiavg 75¢ | $508.4 | $569.64 | +$61.24 | |
| └ KK Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana leg | KK Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljanaavg 16.8¢ | $187.35 | $178.92 | -$8.43 | |
 poshposh<$100 | BC Aris Thessalonikiavg 81¢ | $53.87 | $58.19 | +$4.32 | 60% 9402-6388 (15790) |
 HRTrading<$100 | BC Aris Thessalonikiavg 81.6¢ | $23.87 | $21.64 | -$2.23 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
Invested
$695.75
Value
$748.56
PnL
+$52.81
Record
50%
32798-32351 (65149)
Both legs:
poshposh<$100Invested
$53.87
Value
$58.19
PnL
+$4.32
Record
60%
9402-6388 (15790)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$23.87
Value
$21.64
PnL
-$2.23
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.