Aquila Basket Trento vs. Buducnost Podgorica: O/U 171.5

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (20%) · Under at 51¢ · $403 held · ended Oct 27

Over49¢Under51¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 20%

Total Value

$402.51

Combined PnL

-$10.04

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under1 trader

Total Value$266.33

Total Shares527

Combined PnL-$17.46

Over4 traders

Total Value$136.18

Total Shares275

Combined PnL+$7.42

Under — 20%Over — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI viper0310	Underavg 53.8¢	$283.79	$266.33	-$17.46	45% 14-17 (31)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 46.5¢	$102.44	$99.01	+$6.2	58% 40420-29201 (69621)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$20.7	$22.28	+$1.57	50% 3675-3651 (7326)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Overavg 53¢	$10.65	$9.95	-$0.7	49% 18415-18835 (37250)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$4.6	$4.95	+$0.35	54% 2609-2230 (4839)

viper0310

Under

Invested

$283.79

Value

$266.33

PnL

-$17.46

Record

45%

14-17 (31)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$102.44

Value

$99.01

PnL

+$6.2

Record

58%

40420-29201 (69621)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$20.7

Value

$22.28

PnL

+$1.57

Record

50%

3675-3651 (7326)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.65

Value

$9.95

PnL

-$0.7

Record

49%

18415-18835 (37250)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.6

Value

$4.95

PnL

+$0.35

Record

54%

2609-2230 (4839)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.2%

51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$87.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

187.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.