Aquila Basket Trento vs. Buducnost Podgorica

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Aquila Basket Trento (57%) · Aquila Basket Trento at 51¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 3

Aquila Basket Trento51¢Buducnost Podgorica49¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Aquila Basket Trento

Consensus Traders

Aquila Basket Trento 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

-$156.18

Smart Money Entry

45.5¢ → 50.5¢

+11% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidAquila Basket Trento at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Aquila Basket Trento

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Aquila Basket Trento51%

Buducnost Podgorica50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Aquila Basket Trento4 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares4,284

Combined PnL-$295.82

Buducnost Podgorica3 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,540

Combined PnL+$139.63

Aquila Basket Trento — 57%Buducnost Podgorica — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU lukibazdonauki754	Aquila Basket Trentoavg 46.6¢	$1.5K	$1.8K	-$283.49	60% 852-566 (1418)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Buducnost Podgoricaavg 53.3¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$150.85	49% 18415-18835 (37250)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Buducnost Podgoricaavg 53.9¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$35.56	50% 32601-32144 (64745)
└ Buducnost Podgorica leg	Buducnost Podgoricaavg 53.9¢	$999.06	$927.14	-$71.92
└ Aquila Basket Trento leg	Aquila Basket Trentoavg 43.5¢	$242.37	$278.73	+$36.36
LS LSS1	Aquila Basket Trentoavg 42.2¢	$442.45	$419.31	-$23.14	72% 1534-600 (2134)
VeryLucky888CTR	Buducnost Podgoricaavg 59.9¢	$518.44	$164.75	-$11.16	58% 40420-29201 (69621)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Aquila Basket Trentoavg 43.5¢	$45.83	$59.99	+$14.16	50% 3675-3651 (7326)
HRTrading<$100	Aquila Basket Trentoavg 60.6¢	$21.49	$18.14	-$3.35	54% 2609-2230 (4839)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Buducnost Podgoricaavg 61¢	$6.64	$6.59	-$0.05	52% 5822-5445 (11267)

lukibazdonauki754

Aquila Basket Trento

Invested

$1,450.04

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$283.49

Record

60%

852-566 (1418)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Buducnost Podgorica

Invested

$1,199.32

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$150.85

Record

49%

18415-18835 (37250)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Buducnost Podgorica

Invested

$1,241.42

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$35.56

Record

50%

32601-32144 (64745)

Both legs:

Buducnost Podgorica$999.0653.9¢-$71.92

Aquila Basket Trento$242.3743.5¢+$36.36

LSS1

Aquila Basket Trento

Invested

$442.45

Value

$419.31

PnL

-$23.14

Record

72%

1534-600 (2134)

VeryLucky888CTR

Buducnost Podgorica

Invested

$518.44

Value

$164.75

PnL

-$11.16

Record

58%

40420-29201 (69621)

NatoAlfista<$100

Aquila Basket Trento

Invested

$45.83

Value

$59.99

PnL

+$14.16

Record

50%

3675-3651 (7326)

HRTrading<$100

Aquila Basket Trento

Invested

$21.49

Value

$18.14

PnL

-$3.35

Record

54%

2609-2230 (4839)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Buducnost Podgorica

Invested

$6.64

Value

$6.59

PnL

-$0.05

Record

52%

5822-5445 (11267)

Research grade

AvoidAquila Basket Trento at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Aquila Basket Trento

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Aquila Basket Trento wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.