Sabah Baku vs. Nanterre

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Sabah Baku (50%) · Sabah Baku at 69¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 3

Sabah Baku69¢Nanterre31¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Sabah Baku

Consensus Traders

Sabah Baku 50%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

-$227.15

Smart Money Entry

68.9¢ → 68.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidSabah Baku at 69%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sabah Baku

2 of 4 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Sabah Baku69%

Nanterre32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sabah Baku2 traders

Total Value$315.76

Total Shares452

Combined PnL-$237.58

Nanterre2 traders

Total Value$94.58

Total Shares215

Combined PnL+$10.42

Sabah Baku — 50%Nanterre — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Nanterreavg 37.1¢	$997.34	$1.7K	+$656.45	49% 496-525 (1021)
└ Sabah Baku leg	Sabah Bakuavg 25.5¢	$439.41	$1.2K	+$740.71
└ Nanterre leg	Nanterreavg 37.1¢	$557.93	$473.67	-$84.25
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Nanterreavg 37.7¢	$994.51	$1.4K	+$437.71	50% 32583-32122 (64705)
└ Sabah Baku leg	Sabah Bakuavg 24¢	$279.91	$740.64	+$460.73
└ Nanterre leg	Nanterreavg 37.7¢	$714.59	$691.58	-$23.02
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Sabah Bakuavg 39.2¢	$221.76	$300.2	+$78.44	49% 18399-18822 (37221)
└ Sabah Baku leg	Sabah Bakuavg 39.2¢	$111.06	$192.85	+$81.79
└ Nanterre leg	Nanterreavg 33¢	$110.7	$107.35	-$3.35
LS LSS1	Sabah Bakuavg 70¢	$670.72	$257.07	-$228.21	72% 1534-600 (2134)
MI mishipolisCTR<$100	Nanterreavg 37¢	$74	$87	+$13	50% 4407-4338 (8745)
HRTrading<$100	Sabah Bakuavg 63.5¢	$68.06	$58.69	-$9.37	54% 2570-2206 (4776)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Nanterreavg 67¢	$10.16	$7.58	-$2.58	58% 27870-20508 (48378)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Nanterre

Invested

$997.34

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$656.45

Record

49%

496-525 (1021)

Both legs:

Sabah Baku$439.4125.5¢+$740.71

Nanterre$557.9337.1¢-$84.25

SnakeBallARB<$100

Nanterre

Invested

$994.51

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$437.71

Record

50%

32583-32122 (64705)

Both legs:

Sabah Baku$279.9124¢+$460.73

Nanterre$714.5937.7¢-$23.02

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Sabah Baku

Invested

$221.76

Value

$300.2

PnL

+$78.44

Record

49%

18399-18822 (37221)

Both legs:

Sabah Baku$111.0639.2¢+$81.79

Nanterre$110.733¢-$3.35

LSS1

Sabah Baku

Invested

$670.72

Value

$257.07

PnL

-$228.21

Record

72%

1534-600 (2134)

mishipolisCTR<$100

Nanterre

Invested

$74

Value

$87

PnL

+$13

Record

50%

4407-4338 (8745)

HRTrading<$100

Sabah Baku

Invested

$68.06

Value

$58.69

PnL

-$9.37

Record

54%

2570-2206 (4776)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Nanterre

Invested

$10.16

Value

$7.58

PnL

-$2.58

Record

58%

27870-20508 (48378)

Research grade

AvoidSabah Baku at 69%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Sabah Baku

2 of 4 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sabah Baku wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.