BC Rytas vs. Trabzonspor

2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold BC Rytas (67%) · BC Rytas at 100¢ · $895 held · ends Nov 4

BC Rytas>99¢Trabzonspor<1¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

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BC Rytas

Consensus Traders

BC Rytas 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$894.76

Combined PnL

$17.92

Smart Money Entry

88.9¢ → 100¢

+12% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidBC Rytas at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

BC Rytas

2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

BC Rytas100%

Trabzonspor0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

BC Rytas2 traders

Total Value$346.33

Total Shares369

Combined PnL+$15.21

Trabzonspor1 trader

Total Value$22.55

Total Shares45

Combined PnL+$2.71

BC Rytas — 67%Trabzonspor — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Trabzonsporavg 10.3¢	$745.49	$525.56	-$219.92	49% 557-579 (1136)
└ Trabzonspor leg	Trabzonsporavg 10.3¢	$621.68	$392.51	-$229.17
└ BC Rytas leg	BC Rytasavg 87¢	$123.81	$133.06	+$9.25
poshposh	BC Rytasavg 89.2¢	$319.45	$334.61	+$15.16	60% 9388-6379 (15767)
MI mishipolisCTR<$100	Trabzonsporavg 44¢	$19.84	$22.55	+$2.71	50% 4442-4367 (8809)
HRTrading<$100	BC Rytasavg 79.7¢	$10.38	$11.71	+$0.05	53% 3080-2737 (5817)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Trabzonspor

Invested

$745.49

Value

$525.56

PnL

-$219.92

Record

49%

557-579 (1136)

Both legs:

Trabzonspor$621.6810.3¢-$229.17

BC Rytas$123.8187¢+$9.25

poshposh

BC Rytas

Invested

$319.45

Value

$334.61

PnL

+$15.16

Record

60%

9388-6379 (15767)

mishipolisCTR<$100

Trabzonspor

Invested

$19.84

Value

$22.55

PnL

+$2.71

Record

50%

4442-4367 (8809)

HRTrading<$100

BC Rytas

Invested

$10.38

Value

$11.71

PnL

+$0.05

Record

53%

3080-2737 (5817)

Research grade

AvoidBC Rytas at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

BC Rytas

2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that BC Rytas wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.