Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold CB Murcia, while the market favors Peristeri (56%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
CB Murcia vs. Peristeri
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold CB Murcia (80%) · CB Murcia at 44¢ · $610 held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
CB Murcia
5
CB Murcia 80%
$609.67
-$695.85
45¢ → 44¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidCB Murcia at 44%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Peristeri 56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on CB Murcia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | CB Murciaavg 66.2¢ | $782.86 | $559.64 | -$223.14 | 48% 498-531 (1029) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Peristeriavg 66.9¢ | $16.11 | $22.42 | +$6.31 | 54% 2678-2303 (4981) |
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100 | CB Murciaavg 29¢ | $20.59 | $20.59 | +$0 | 50% 3679-3657 (7336) |
TO torta.techCTR | CB Murciaavg 37.9¢ | $440.97 | $5.62 | -$418.79 | 63% 7956-4738 (12694) |
MI mishipolisCTR<$100 | CB Murciaavg 22¢ | $61.64 | $1.4 | -$60.23 | 50% 4410-4341 (8751) |
Invested
$782.86
Value
$559.64
PnL
-$223.14
Record
48%
498-531 (1029)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$16.11
Value
$22.42
PnL
+$6.31
Record
54%
2678-2303 (4981)
Invested
$20.59
Value
$20.59
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
3679-3657 (7336)
Invested
$440.97
Value
$5.62
PnL
-$418.79
Record
63%
7956-4738 (12694)
Invested
$61.64
Value
$1.4
PnL
-$60.23
Record
50%
4410-4341 (8751)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.