Brose Bamberg vs. Pallacanestro Varese
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Pallacanestro Varese (67%) · Pallacanestro Varese at 98¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 3
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Avoid
Pallacanestro Varese
6
Pallacanestro Varese 67%
$2.2K
$236.96
71.2¢ → 98.3¢
+38% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidPallacanestro Varese at 98%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Pallacanestro Vareseavg 70.7¢ | $1.2K | $1.7K | +$455.11 | 50% 32601-32144 (64745) |
LS LSS1 | Pallacanestro Vareseavg 72¢ | $410.31 | $284.94 | -$125.37 | 72% 1534-600 (2134) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Brose Bambergavg 14.8¢ | $230.32 | $126.31 | -$104.01 | 49% 496-525 (1021) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Pallacanestro Vareseavg 82.5¢ | $69.64 | $83.01 | +$13.37 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Brose Bambergavg 57¢ | $18.24 | $16 | -$2.24 | 58% 27870-20510 (48380) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Pallacanestro Vareseavg 49.6¢ | $12.85 | $12.95 | +$0.1 | 49% 18415-18835 (37250) |
Invested
$1,247.51
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$455.11
Record
50%
32601-32144 (64745)
Invested
$410.31
Value
$284.94
PnL
-$125.37
Record
72%
1534-600 (2134)
Invested
$230.32
Value
$126.31
PnL
-$104.01
Record
49%
496-525 (1021)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$69.64
Value
$83.01
PnL
+$13.37
Record
54%
2609-2230 (4839)
Invested
$18.24
Value
$16
PnL
-$2.24
Record
58%
27870-20510 (48380)
Invested
$12.85
Value
$12.95
PnL
+$0.1
Record
49%
18415-18835 (37250)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.