Alba Berlin vs. Bilbao Basket

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Alba Berlin (57%) · Alba Berlin at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4

Alba Berlin>99¢Bilbao Basket<1¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Alba Berlin

Consensus Traders

Alba Berlin 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$188.06

Smart Money Entry

79.1¢ → 100¢

+26% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidAlba Berlin at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alba Berlin

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Alba Berlin100%

Bilbao Basket0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alba Berlin4 traders

Total Value$862.21

Total Shares1,224

Combined PnL-$105.57

Bilbao Basket3 traders

Total Value$60.44

Total Shares209

Combined PnL-$82.49

Alba Berlin — 57%Bilbao Basket — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Bilbao Basketavg 43¢	$1.6K	$520.6	$-1.1K	49% 558-581 (1139)
└ Bilbao Basket leg	Bilbao Basketavg 43¢	$1.5K	$380.19	$-1.1K
└ Alba Berlin leg	Alba Berlinavg 81¢	$127.78	$140.42	+$12.63
LO looppau	Alba Berlinavg 99.9¢	$499.5	$499.75	+$0.25	99% 10519-53 (10572)
TO torta.tech	Alba Berlinavg 65¢	$459.53	$353.38	-$106.15	63% 7978-4772 (12750)
poshposhCTR	Bilbao Basketavg 65¢	$122.15	$34.45	-$87.7	60% 9402-6388 (15790)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Bilbao Basketavg 41¢	$20.5	$25	+$4.5	59% 44644-31046 (75690)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Alba Berlinavg 48¢	$7.56	$7.88	+$0.32	50% 32798-32351 (65149)
HRTrading<$100	Alba Berlinavg 85¢	$1.19	$1.2	+$0.01	53% 3098-2756 (5854)
MI mishipolisCTR<$100	Bilbao Basketavg 3¢	$0.28	$0.99	+$0.71	50% 4442-4369 (8811)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Bilbao Basket

Invested

$1,614.1

Value

$520.6

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

49%

558-581 (1139)

Both legs:

Bilbao Basket$1,486.3243¢$-1.1K

Alba Berlin$127.7881¢+$12.63

looppau

Alba Berlin

Invested

$499.5

Value

$499.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

99%

10519-53 (10572)

torta.tech

Alba Berlin

Invested

$459.53

Value

$353.38

PnL

-$106.15

Record

63%

7978-4772 (12750)

poshposhCTR

Bilbao Basket

Invested

$122.15

Value

$34.45

PnL

-$87.7

Record

60%

9402-6388 (15790)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Bilbao Basket

Invested

$20.5

Value

$25

PnL

+$4.5

Record

59%

44644-31046 (75690)

SnakeBall<$100

Alba Berlin

Invested

$7.56

Value

$7.88

PnL

+$0.32

Record

50%

32798-32351 (65149)

HRTrading<$100

Alba Berlin

Invested

$1.19

Value

$1.2

PnL

+$0.01

Record

53%

3098-2756 (5854)

mishipolisCTR<$100

Bilbao Basket

Invested

$0.28

Value

$0.99

PnL

+$0.71

Record

50%

4442-4369 (8811)

Research grade

AvoidAlba Berlin at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Alba Berlin

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alba Berlin wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.