Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Zhejiang Golden Bulls, while the market favors Shanghai Sharks (54%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Zhejiang Golden Bulls vs. Shanghai Sharks

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Zhejiang Golden Bulls (75%) · Zhejiang Golden Bulls at 47¢ · $804 held · ends Nov 6

Zhejiang Golden Bulls47¢Shanghai Sharks53¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Zhejiang Golden Bulls

Consensus Traders

Zhejiang Golden Bulls 75%

Total Value

$803.7

Combined PnL

$12.29

Smart Money Entry

48.3¢ → 46.5¢

-4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidZhejiang Golden Bulls at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Zhejiang Golden Bulls

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Shanghai Sharks 54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Zhejiang Golden Bulls47%

Shanghai Sharks54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Zhejiang Golden Bulls6 traders

Total Value$714.21

Total Shares1,461

Combined PnL+$14.64

Shanghai Sharks2 traders

Total Value$89.49

Total Shares157

Combined PnL-$2.35

Zhejiang Golden Bulls — 75%Shanghai Sharks — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Zhejiang Golden Bullsavg 49.3¢	$299.07	$303.23	+$4.16	53% 367-326 (693)
VeryLucky888CTR	Zhejiang Golden Bullsavg 48.8¢	$490.6	$184.14	+$5.62	58% 41434-30051 (71485)
38 38791873984189CTR	Zhejiang Golden Bullsavg 47¢	$169.2	$171	+$1.8	46% 7787-9202 (16989)
Basquetipster<$100	Shanghai Sharksavg 52¢	$63.42	$60.99	-$2.44	68% 1662-766 (2428)
RO rocky42019CTR<$100	Zhejiang Golden Bullsavg 45¢	$36	$38	+$2	42% 1709-2333 (4042)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Shanghai Sharksavg 51¢	$28.41	$28.5	+$0.09	58% 28351-20930 (49281)
poshposhCTR<$100	Zhejiang Golden Bullsavg 45¢	$14.35	$15.15	+$0.8	59% 9826-6844 (16670)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Zhejiang Golden Bullsavg 45¢	$2.43	$2.7	+$0.27	52% 3925-3577 (7502)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Zhejiang Golden Bulls

Invested

$299.07

Value

$303.23

PnL

+$4.16

Record

53%

367-326 (693)

VeryLucky888CTR

Zhejiang Golden Bulls

Invested

$490.6

Value

$184.14

PnL

+$5.62

Record

58%

41434-30051 (71485)

38791873984189CTR

Zhejiang Golden Bulls

Invested

$169.2

Value

$171

PnL

+$1.8

Record

46%

7787-9202 (16989)

Basquetipster<$100

Shanghai Sharks

Invested

$63.42

Value

$60.99

PnL

-$2.44

Record

68%

1662-766 (2428)

rocky42019CTR<$100

Zhejiang Golden Bulls

Invested

$36

Value

$38

PnL

+$2

Record

42%

1709-2333 (4042)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Shanghai Sharks

Invested

$28.41

Value

$28.5

PnL

+$0.09

Record

58%

28351-20930 (49281)

poshposhCTR<$100

Zhejiang Golden Bulls

Invested

$14.35

Value

$15.15

PnL

+$0.8

Record

59%

9826-6844 (16670)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Zhejiang Golden Bulls

Invested

$2.43

Value

$2.7

PnL

+$0.27

Record

52%

3925-3577 (7502)

Research grade

AvoidZhejiang Golden Bulls at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Zhejiang Golden Bulls

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Shanghai Sharks 54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Zhejiang Golden Bulls wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.