Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Liaoning Flying Leopards, while the market favors Zhejiang Lions (59%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Zhejiang Lions (-2.5)

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Liaoning Flying Leopards (33%) · Liaoning Flying Leopards at 41¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 27

Zhejiang Lions59¢Liaoning Flying Leopards41¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Liaoning Flying Leopards

Consensus Traders

Liaoning Flying Leopards 33%

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

$36.86

Smart Money Entry

51.9¢ → 41¢

-21% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidLiaoning Flying Leopards at 41%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Liaoning Flying Leopards

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Zhejiang Lions 59%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Zhejiang Lions59%

Liaoning Flying Leopards41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Liaoning Flying Leopards2 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares4,392

Combined PnL+$109.16

Zhejiang Lions4 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares4,179

Combined PnL-$72.3

Liaoning Flying Leopards — 33%Zhejiang Lions — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Liaoning Flying Leopardsavg 51.9¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$109.19	49% 18384-18810 (37194)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Zhejiang Lionsavg 48¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$75	47% 2366-2637 (5003)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Zhejiang Lionsavg 48¢	$638.68	$367.32	-$24.47	50% 2443-2432 (4875)
VeryLucky888	Zhejiang Lionsavg 47¢	$141	$155.61	+$28.65	58% 40367-29157 (69524)
BA Bagwell306<$100	Zhejiang Lionsavg 47¢	$46.53	$45.05	-$1.48	59% 3986-2824 (6810)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Liaoning Flying Leopardsavg 41.4¢	$2.59	$2.56	-$0.03	54% 2548-2182 (4730)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Liaoning Flying Leopards

Invested

$2,367.33

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$109.19

Record

49%

18384-18810 (37194)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Zhejiang Lions

Invested

$1,440

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$75

Record

47%

2366-2637 (5003)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Zhejiang Lions

Invested

$638.68

Value

$367.32

PnL

-$24.47

Record

50%

2443-2432 (4875)

VeryLucky888

Zhejiang Lions

Invested

$141

Value

$155.61

PnL

+$28.65

Record

58%

40367-29157 (69524)

Bagwell306<$100

Zhejiang Lions

Invested

$46.53

Value

$45.05

PnL

-$1.48

Record

59%

3986-2824 (6810)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Liaoning Flying Leopards

Invested

$2.59

Value

$2.56

PnL

-$0.03

Record

54%

2548-2182 (4730)

Research grade

AvoidLiaoning Flying Leopards at 41%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Liaoning Flying Leopards

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Zhejiang Lions 59%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Liaoning Flying Leopards wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.2%

41.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$131.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

231.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.