Zhejiang Lions vs. Liaoning Flying Leopards
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Zhejiang Lions (20%) · Zhejiang Lions at 54¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Zhejiang Lions
5
Zhejiang Lions 20%
$6.5K
-$373.81
Research grade
AvoidZhejiang Lions at 54%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QU QuentinChen | Zhejiang Lionsavg 55.4¢ | $4.8K | $4.3K | -$467.37 | 46% 304-351 (655) |
RU Ruler11CTR | Liaoning Flying Leopardsavg 45¢ | $990 | $1.1K | +$110 | 51% 278-265 (543) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Liaoning Flying Leopardsavg 44.5¢ | $945.11 | $923.9 | -$21.21 | 50% 11913-12075 (23988) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Liaoning Flying Leopardsavg 45.2¢ | $146.88 | $151.24 | +$4.36 | 59% 44203-30575 (74778) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Liaoning Flying Leopardsavg 44.8¢ | $13.86 | $14.28 | +$0.42 | 54% 2513-2131 (4644) |
Invested
$4,776.02
Value
$4.3K
PnL
-$467.37
Record
46%
304-351 (655)
Invested
$990
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$110
Record
51%
278-265 (543)
Invested
$945.11
Value
$923.9
PnL
-$21.21
Record
50%
11913-12075 (23988)
Invested
$146.88
Value
$151.24
PnL
+$4.36
Record
59%
44203-30575 (74778)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$13.86
Value
$14.28
PnL
+$0.42
Record
54%
2513-2131 (4644)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.