Tianjin Pioneers vs. Zhejiang Lions

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Tianjin Pioneers (63%) · Tianjin Pioneers at 95¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 6

Tianjin Pioneers95¢Zhejiang Lions5¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Tianjin Pioneers

Consensus Traders

Tianjin Pioneers 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$225.85

Smart Money Entry

71.3¢ → 94.5¢

+33% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidTianjin Pioneers at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tianjin Pioneers

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Tianjin Pioneers95%

Zhejiang Lions6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tianjin Pioneers5 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,673

Combined PnL+$260.05

Zhejiang Lions3 traders

Total Value$376.28

Total Shares766

Combined PnL-$34.2

Tianjin Pioneers — 63%Zhejiang Lions — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Tianjin Pioneersavg 85.5¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$137.89	48% 752-809 (1561)
QU QuentinChen	Tianjin Pioneersavg 35.7¢	$236.5	$504.74	+$52.83	47% 316-359 (675)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Zhejiang Lionsavg 51.5¢	$344.53	$334.7	-$9.83	49% 18975-19389 (38364)
VeryLucky888	Tianjin Pioneersavg 43.7¢	$392.78	$185.01	+$68.94	58% 41483-30105 (71588)
poshposh	Tianjin Pioneersavg 84.9¢	$152.36	$153.74	+$1.38	59% 9909-6885 (16794)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Zhejiang Lionsavg 53¢	$245.62	$74.21	-$110.21	46% 7925-9338 (17263)
└ Tianjin Pioneers leg	Tianjin Pioneersavg 71.2¢	$38.88	$48.84	+$9.96
└ Zhejiang Lions leg	Zhejiang Lionsavg 53¢	$127.97	$25.36	-$120.17
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Zhejiang Lionsavg 60.6¢	$51.75	$28.44	-$23.31	58% 28411-20971 (49382)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Zhejiang Lionsavg 54¢	$14.19	$13.14	-$1.05	51% 5972-5662 (11634)
HRTrading<$100	Tianjin Pioneersavg 68.1¢	$10.32	$9.32	-$1	52% 3994-3636 (7630)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Tianjin Pioneers

Invested

$1,503.35

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$137.89

Record

48%

752-809 (1561)

QuentinChen

Tianjin Pioneers

Invested

$236.5

Value

$504.74

PnL

+$52.83

Record

47%

316-359 (675)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Zhejiang Lions

Invested

$344.53

Value

$334.7

PnL

-$9.83

Record

49%

18975-19389 (38364)

VeryLucky888

Tianjin Pioneers

Invested

$392.78

Value

$185.01

PnL

+$68.94

Record

58%

41483-30105 (71588)

poshposh

Tianjin Pioneers

Invested

$152.36

Value

$153.74

PnL

+$1.38

Record

59%

9909-6885 (16794)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Zhejiang Lions

Invested

$245.62

Value

$74.21

PnL

-$110.21

Record

46%

7925-9338 (17263)

Both legs:

Tianjin Pioneers$38.8871.2¢+$9.96

Zhejiang Lions$127.9753¢-$120.17

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Zhejiang Lions

Invested

$51.75

Value

$28.44

PnL

-$23.31

Record

58%

28411-20971 (49382)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Zhejiang Lions

Invested

$14.19

Value

$13.14

PnL

-$1.05

Record

51%

5972-5662 (11634)

HRTrading<$100

Tianjin Pioneers

Invested

$10.32

Value

$9.32

PnL

-$1

Record

52%

3994-3636 (7630)

Research grade

AvoidTianjin Pioneers at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Tianjin Pioneers

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tianjin Pioneers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.