Tianjin Pioneers vs. Ningbo Rockets

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Tianjin Pioneers (67%) · Tianjin Pioneers at 82¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 8

Tianjin Pioneers82¢Ningbo Rockets18¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Tianjin Pioneers

Consensus Traders

Tianjin Pioneers 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$30.95

Smart Money Entry

73.6¢ → 81.5¢

+11% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidTianjin Pioneers at 82%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tianjin Pioneers

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Tianjin Pioneers82%

Ningbo Rockets19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tianjin Pioneers4 traders

Total Value$291.51

Total Shares494

Combined PnL-$31.19

Ningbo Rockets2 traders

Total Value$16.96

Total Shares41

Combined PnL+$0.24

Tianjin Pioneers — 67%Ningbo Rockets — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Tianjin Pioneers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNingbo Rockets 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Tianjin Pioneers 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Tianjin Pioneersavg 71.2¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$39.48	48% 1059-1161 (2220)
└ Tianjin Pioneers leg	Tianjin Pioneersavg 71.2¢	$610.78	$699.32	+$88.54
└ Ningbo Rockets leg	Ningbo Rocketsavg 20.5¢	$500.88	$451.82	-$49.06
TO torta.tech	Tianjin Pioneersavg 78¢	$251.16	$189.98	-$61.18	62% 8223-4934 (13157)
MI mishipolis	Tianjin Pioneersavg 58.4¢	$185.81	$69.67	+$39.86	50% 4582-4519 (9101)
HRTrading<$100	Tianjin Pioneersavg 79.4¢	$28.59	$21.24	-$7.35	53% 5597-5025 (10622)
poshposhCTR<$100	Ningbo Rocketsavg 41¢	$15.33	$15.33	-$0	58% 10646-7629 (18275)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Tianjin Pioneersavg 82¢	$13.14	$10.62	-$2.52	57% 29224-21607 (50831)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Ningbo Rocketsavg 35¢	$1.39	$1.63	+$0.24	67% 23457-11814 (35271)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Tianjin Pioneers

Invested

$1,111.66

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$39.48

Record

48%

1059-1161 (2220)

Both legs:

Tianjin Pioneers$610.7871.2¢+$88.54

Ningbo Rockets$500.8820.5¢-$49.06

torta.tech

Tianjin Pioneers

Invested

$251.16

Value

$189.98

PnL

-$61.18

Record

62%

8223-4934 (13157)

mishipolis

Tianjin Pioneers

Invested

$185.81

Value

$69.67

PnL

+$39.86

Record

50%

4582-4519 (9101)

HRTrading<$100

Tianjin Pioneers

Invested

$28.59

Value

$21.24

PnL

-$7.35

Record

53%

5597-5025 (10622)

poshposhCTR<$100

Ningbo Rockets

Invested

$15.33

Value

$15.33

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

10646-7629 (18275)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Tianjin Pioneers

Invested

$13.14

Value

$10.62

PnL

-$2.52

Record

57%

29224-21607 (50831)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Ningbo Rockets

Invested

$1.39

Value

$1.63

PnL

+$0.24

Record

67%

23457-11814 (35271)

Research grade

AvoidTianjin Pioneers at 82%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Tianjin Pioneers

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Tianjin Pioneers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNingbo Rockets 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Tianjin Pioneers 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tianjin Pioneers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.