Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin vs. Guangdong Southern Tigers

1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin (17%) · Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin at 63¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 7

Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin63¢Guangdong Southern Tigers37¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin

Consensus Traders

Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin 17%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.7K

Combined PnL

$21.71

Research grade

AvoidShandong Hi-Speed Kirin at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin

1 of 6 top traders (17%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin63%

Guangdong Southern Tigers38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin1 trader

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares11,409

Combined PnL+$13.03

Guangdong Southern Tigers5 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares6,488

Combined PnL+$8.68

Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin — 17%Guangdong Southern Tigers — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGuangdong Southern Tigers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrGuangdong Southern Tigers 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedGuangdong Southern Tigers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Guangdong Southern Tigers 86% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU QuentinChen	Shandong Hi-Speed Kirinavg 62.4¢	$7.1K	$7.2K	+$13.03	47% 318-360 (678)
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR	Guangdong Southern Tigersavg 37¢	$1,000	$1,000	-$0	51% 3927-3841 (7768)
NO NotradecopyCTR	Guangdong Southern Tigersavg 37¢	$1,000	$1,000	+$13.51	49% 3921-4114 (8035)
poshposhCTR	Guangdong Southern Tigersavg 37.2¢	$344.64	$342.57	-$2.07	59% 10106-7093 (17199)
MI mishipolisARB<$100	Guangdong Southern Tigersavg 37¢	$132.19	$133.13	+$0.94	50% 4535-4477 (9012)
└ Guangdong Southern Tigers leg	Guangdong Southern Tigersavg 37¢	$74	$74	+$0
└ Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin leg	Shandong Hi-Speed Kirinavg 62¢	$58.19	$59.13	+$0.94
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Guangdong Southern Tigersavg 39¢	$37.48	$35.52	-$1.96	58% 28639-21134 (49773)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Guangdong Southern Tigersavg 38.8¢	$23.58	$22.78	-$0.8	51% 5997-5693 (11690)

QuentinChen

Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin

Invested

$7,117.86

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$13.03

Record

47%

318-360 (678)

GamblingAddict12345CTR

Guangdong Southern Tigers

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1,000

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

3927-3841 (7768)

NotradecopyCTR

Guangdong Southern Tigers

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1,000

PnL

+$13.51

Record

49%

3921-4114 (8035)

poshposhCTR

Guangdong Southern Tigers

Invested

$344.64

Value

$342.57

PnL

-$2.07

Record

59%

10106-7093 (17199)

mishipolisARB<$100

Guangdong Southern Tigers

Invested

$132.19

Value

$133.13

PnL

+$0.94

Record

50%

4535-4477 (9012)

Both legs:

Guangdong Southern Tigers$7437¢+$0

Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin$58.1962¢+$0.94

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Guangdong Southern Tigers

Invested

$37.48

Value

$35.52

PnL

-$1.96

Record

58%

28639-21134 (49773)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Guangdong Southern Tigers

Invested

$23.58

Value

$22.78

PnL

-$0.8

Record

51%

5997-5693 (11690)

Research grade

AvoidShandong Hi-Speed Kirin at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin

1 of 6 top traders (17%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGuangdong Southern Tigers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrGuangdong Southern Tigers 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedGuangdong Southern Tigers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Guangdong Southern Tigers 86% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.