Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin vs. Beijing Royal Fighters

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Beijing Royal Fighters (57%) · Beijing Royal Fighters at 61¢ · $628 held · ends Nov 9

Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin39¢Beijing Royal Fighters61¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Beijing Royal Fighters

Consensus Traders

Beijing Royal Fighters 57%

Total Value

$627.92

Combined PnL

-$39.03

Smart Money Entry

66.7¢ → 61¢

-9% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidBeijing Royal Fighters at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Beijing Royal Fighters

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin39%

Beijing Royal Fighters61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Beijing Royal Fighters4 traders

Total Value$523.15

Total Shares817

Combined PnL-$43.06

Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin3 traders

Total Value$104.77

Total Shares267

Combined PnL+$4.03

Beijing Royal Fighters — 57%Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Beijing Royal Fightersavg 66.9¢	$543.6	$500.87	-$42.73	50% 19465-19831 (39296)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Shandong Hi-Speed Kirinavg 37.6¢	$77.85	$78	+$3.15	58% 42718-31089 (73807)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Shandong Hi-Speed Kirinavg 39¢	$25.35	$26	+$0.65	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Beijing Royal Fightersavg 62¢	$8.68	$8.61	-$0.07	57% 29247-21632 (50879)
RO rocky42019<$100	Beijing Royal Fightersavg 58¢	$6.9	$6.96	+$0.06	42% 1726-2358 (4084)
HRTrading<$100	Beijing Royal Fightersavg 63.9¢	$7.03	$6.71	-$0.32	53% 5677-5082 (10759)
BA Bagwell306CTR<$100	Shandong Hi-Speed Kirinavg 35¢	$0.54	$0.77	+$0.23	58% 4068-2891 (6959)

omnibus-076daa

Beijing Royal Fighters

Invested

$543.6

Value

$500.87

PnL

-$42.73

Record

50%

19465-19831 (39296)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin

Invested

$77.85

Value

$78

PnL

+$3.15

Record

58%

42718-31089 (73807)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin

Invested

$25.35

Value

$26

PnL

+$0.65

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Beijing Royal Fighters

Invested

$8.68

Value

$8.61

PnL

-$0.07

Record

57%

29247-21632 (50879)

rocky42019<$100

Beijing Royal Fighters

Invested

$6.9

Value

$6.96

PnL

+$0.06

Record

42%

1726-2358 (4084)

HRTrading<$100

Beijing Royal Fighters

Invested

$7.03

Value

$6.71

PnL

-$0.32

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

Bagwell306CTR<$100

Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin

Invested

$0.54

Value

$0.77

PnL

+$0.23

Record

58%

4068-2891 (6959)

Research grade

AvoidBeijing Royal Fighters at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Beijing Royal Fighters

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Beijing Royal Fighters wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.2%

61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$58.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

158.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.