Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Qingdao Eagles, while the market favors Tianjin Pioneers (55%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Qingdao Eagles (-13.5)
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Qingdao Eagles (100%) · Qingdao Eagles at 46¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Qingdao Eagles
5
Qingdao Eagles 100%
$1.3K
$9.25
47¢ → 45.5¢
-3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidQingdao Eagles at 46%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Tianjin Pioneers 55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR | Qingdao Eaglesavg 47¢ | $582.03 | $588.22 | +$6.19 | 50% 2443-2430 (4873) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR | Qingdao Eaglesavg 47¢ | $470 | $475 | +$5 | 47% 2366-2633 (4999) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Qingdao Eaglesavg 47.5¢ | $109.49 | $102.53 | -$2.21 | 58% 40340-29132 (69472) |
BA Bagwell306CTR<$100 | Qingdao Eaglesavg 47¢ | $46.53 | $47.03 | +$0.49 | 59% 3980-2819 (6799) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Qingdao Eaglesavg 47.5¢ | $37.49 | $37.26 | -$0.23 | 58% 27838-20469 (48307) |
Invested
$582.03
Value
$588.22
PnL
+$6.19
Record
50%
2443-2430 (4873)
Invested
$470
Value
$475
PnL
+$5
Record
47%
2366-2633 (4999)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$109.49
Value
$102.53
PnL
-$2.21
Record
58%
40340-29132 (69472)
Invested
$46.53
Value
$47.03
PnL
+$0.49
Record
59%
3980-2819 (6799)
Invested
$37.49
Value
$37.26
PnL
-$0.23
Record
58%
27838-20469 (48307)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.