Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Qingdao Eagles, while the market favors Beijing Ducks (68%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Beijing Ducks (-9.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Qingdao Eagles (80%) · Qingdao Eagles at 33¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Qingdao Eagles
5
Qingdao Eagles 80%
$2.2K
$567.02
47.2¢ → 32.5¢
-31% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidQingdao Eagles at 33%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Beijing Ducks 68%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QU QuentinChenCTR | Qingdao Eaglesavg 46.6¢ | $1.4K | $2.0K | +$593.39 | 47% 314-356 (670) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Qingdao Eaglesavg 54.5¢ | $222.81 | $93.01 | -$27.75 | 58% 41203-29875 (71078) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Beijing Ducksavg 58¢ | $68.13 | $64.53 | -$3.6 | 52% 3684-3346 (7030) |
MI mishipolisCTR<$100 | Qingdao Eaglesavg 54¢ | $43.5 | $50 | +$6.5 | 50% 4484-4419 (8903) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100 | Qingdao Eaglesavg 54¢ | $10.96 | $9.44 | -$1.52 | 47% 2442-2739 (5181) |
Invested
$1,426.64
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$593.39
Record
47%
314-356 (670)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$222.81
Value
$93.01
PnL
-$27.75
Record
58%
41203-29875 (71078)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$68.13
Value
$64.53
PnL
-$3.6
Record
52%
3684-3346 (7030)
Invested
$43.5
Value
$50
PnL
+$6.5
Record
50%
4484-4419 (8903)
Invested
$10.96
Value
$9.44
PnL
-$1.52
Record
47%
2442-2739 (5181)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.