Qingdao Eagles vs. Beijing Ducks

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Beijing Ducks (80%) · Beijing Ducks at 65¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 5

Qingdao Eagles36¢Beijing Ducks64¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Beijing Ducks

Consensus Traders

Beijing Ducks 80%

Total Value

$10.6K

Combined PnL

$592.09

Smart Money Entry

73.8¢ → 64.5¢

-13% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidBeijing Ducks at 65%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Beijing Ducks

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Qingdao Eagles36%

Beijing Ducks65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Beijing Ducks8 traders

Total Value$7.9K

Total Shares10,543

Combined PnL-$95.45

Qingdao Eagles2 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares10,044

Combined PnL+$687.53

Beijing Ducks — 80%Qingdao Eagles — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Beijing Ducksavg 68¢	$2.7K	$2.9K	+$140	47% 2442-2739 (5181)
QU QuentinChenCTR	Qingdao Eaglesavg 20.6¢	$2.1K	$2.7K	+$686.78	47% 314-356 (670)
UP UpTheBlues	Beijing Ducksavg 80.7¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$117.23	59% 45090-31481 (76571)
LU LuckyLoo	Beijing Ducksavg 79.5¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$142.61	49% 12392-12709 (25101)
SN SnakeBall	Beijing Ducksavg 81¢	$938.85	$946.65	+$7.79	50% 33056-32624 (65680)
BA Bagwell306	Beijing Ducksavg 67¢	$669.33	$714.29	+$44.95	59% 4026-2850 (6876)
VeryLucky888	Beijing Ducksavg 78.2¢	$1.4K	$341.83	-$25.47	58% 41203-29875 (71078)
poshposh	Beijing Ducksavg 72.9¢	$333.89	$327.51	-$6.38	59% 9671-6655 (16326)
MI mishipolis<$100	Beijing Ducksavg 68¢	$68	$71.5	+$3.5	50% 4484-4419 (8903)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Qingdao Eaglesavg 17¢	$8.5	$9.5	+$0.75	51% 5921-5596 (11517)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Beijing Ducks

Invested

$2,720

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$140

Record

47%

2442-2739 (5181)

QuentinChenCTR

Qingdao Eagles

Invested

$2,061.6

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$686.78

Record

47%

314-356 (670)

UpTheBlues

Beijing Ducks

Invested

$1,465.64

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$117.23

Record

59%

45090-31481 (76571)

LuckyLoo

Beijing Ducks

Invested

$1,417.9

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$142.61

Record

49%

12392-12709 (25101)

SnakeBall

Beijing Ducks

Invested

$938.85

Value

$946.65

PnL

+$7.79

Record

50%

33056-32624 (65680)

Bagwell306

Beijing Ducks

Invested

$669.33

Value

$714.29

PnL

+$44.95

Record

59%

4026-2850 (6876)

VeryLucky888

Beijing Ducks

Invested

$1,404.45

Value

$341.83

PnL

-$25.47

Record

58%

41203-29875 (71078)

poshposh

Beijing Ducks

Invested

$333.89

Value

$327.51

PnL

-$6.38

Record

59%

9671-6655 (16326)

mishipolis<$100

Beijing Ducks

Invested

$68

Value

$71.5

PnL

+$3.5

Record

50%

4484-4419 (8903)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Qingdao Eagles

Invested

$8.5

Value

$9.5

PnL

+$0.75

Record

51%

5921-5596 (11517)

Research grade

AvoidBeijing Ducks at 65%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Beijing Ducks

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Beijing Ducks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.