Ningbo Rockets vs. Liaoning Flying Leopards

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Liaoning Flying Leopards (60%) · Liaoning Flying Leopards at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 6

Ningbo Rockets<1¢Liaoning Flying Leopards>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Liaoning Flying Leopards

Consensus Traders

Liaoning Flying Leopards 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$41.46

Smart Money Entry

92.3¢ → 100¢

+8% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidLiaoning Flying Leopards at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Liaoning Flying Leopards

3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Ningbo Rockets0%

Liaoning Flying Leopards100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Liaoning Flying Leopards3 traders

Total Value$451.96

Total Shares473

Combined PnL+$15.23

Ningbo Rockets2 traders

Total Value$103.07

Total Shares937

Combined PnL+$26.23

Liaoning Flying Leopards — 60%Ningbo Rockets — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Liaoning Flying Leopards. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Ningbo Rockets) and the top 1000 (5 on Liaoning Flying Leopards) disagree here.

whaleNingbo Rockets 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpLiaoning Flying Leopards 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNingbo Rockets 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNingbo Rockets 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Liaoning Flying Leopards 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Ningbo Rocketsavg 15.1¢	$588.89	$491.23	-$276.54	48% 753-814 (1567)
└ Ningbo Rockets leg	Ningbo Rocketsavg 15.1¢	$357.73	$260.07	-$298.62
└ Liaoning Flying Leopards leg	Liaoning Flying Leopardsavg 89¢	$231.16	$231.16	+$22.08
FR freeman123	Liaoning Flying Leopardsavg 92¢	$390	$377.52	+$18.72	82% 542-122 (664)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Ningbo Rocketsavg 8.7¢	$96.9	$81.07	+$16.23	46% 7940-9367 (17307)
HRTrading<$100	Liaoning Flying Leopardsavg 94.8¢	$62.62	$59.31	-$3.32	52% 3994-3637 (7631)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Ningbo Rocketsavg 8.4¢	$67	$22.01	+$10	58% 41488-30106 (71594)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Liaoning Flying Leopardsavg 90¢	$15.3	$15.13	-$0.17	58% 28411-20972 (49383)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Ningbo Rockets

Invested

$588.89

Value

$491.23

PnL

-$276.54

Record

48%

753-814 (1567)

Both legs:

Ningbo Rockets$357.7315.1¢-$298.62

Liaoning Flying Leopards$231.1689¢+$22.08

freeman123

Liaoning Flying Leopards

Invested

$390

Value

$377.52

PnL

+$18.72

Record

82%

542-122 (664)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Ningbo Rockets

Invested

$96.9

Value

$81.07

PnL

+$16.23

Record

46%

7940-9367 (17307)

HRTrading<$100

Liaoning Flying Leopards

Invested

$62.62

Value

$59.31

PnL

-$3.32

Record

52%

3994-3637 (7631)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Ningbo Rockets

Invested

$67

Value

$22.01

PnL

+$10

Record

58%

41488-30106 (71594)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Liaoning Flying Leopards

Invested

$15.3

Value

$15.13

PnL

-$0.17

Record

58%

28411-20972 (49383)

Research grade

AvoidLiaoning Flying Leopards at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Liaoning Flying Leopards

3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Liaoning Flying Leopards. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Ningbo Rockets) and the top 1000 (5 on Liaoning Flying Leopards) disagree here.

whaleNingbo Rockets 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpLiaoning Flying Leopards 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNingbo Rockets 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNingbo Rockets 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Liaoning Flying Leopards 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Liaoning Flying Leopards wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.