Jilin Northeast Tigers vs. Shenzhen Leopards

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Jilin Northeast Tigers (80%) · Jilin Northeast Tigers at 69¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 6

Jilin Northeast Tigers69¢Shenzhen Leopards31¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jilin Northeast Tigers

Consensus Traders

Jilin Northeast Tigers 80%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$30.63

Smart Money Entry

67.4¢ → 68.5¢

+2% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidJilin Northeast Tigers at 69%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jilin Northeast Tigers

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Jilin Northeast Tigers69%

Shenzhen Leopards32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jilin Northeast Tigers8 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,848

Combined PnL+$31.22

Shenzhen Leopards2 traders

Total Value$22.85

Total Shares69

Combined PnL-$0.59

Jilin Northeast Tigers — 80%Shenzhen Leopards — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on Jilin Northeast Tigers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJilin Northeast Tigers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJilin Northeast Tigers 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedJilin Northeast Tigers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Jilin Northeast Tigers 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Jilin Northeast Tigersavg 69.6¢	$520.88	$475.88	-$31.22	46% 7925-9338 (17263)
OM omnibus-076daa	Jilin Northeast Tigersavg 69.1¢	$306.48	$306.06	-$0.42	49% 18975-19389 (38364)
poshposh	Jilin Northeast Tigersavg 70¢	$228.92	$225.52	-$3.4	59% 9909-6885 (16794)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Jilin Northeast Tigersavg 70.1¢	$127.19	$124.62	-$2.57	58% 28411-20971 (49382)
tradecraft	Jilin Northeast Tigersavg 53¢	$82.72	$107.55	+$28.66	51% 5972-5662 (11634)
GA GamblingAddict12345<$100	Jilin Northeast Tigersavg 60¢	$71.19	$81.87	+$10.68	51% 3920-3835 (7755)
MI mishipolis<$100	Jilin Northeast Tigersavg 60¢	$24.68	$28.38	+$3.7	50% 4505-4439 (8944)
BA BayupatiCTR<$100	Shenzhen Leopardsavg 33¢	$18.18	$17.1	-$1.08	51% 219-209 (428)
VeryLucky888	Jilin Northeast Tigersavg 65.9¢	$484.59	$6.45	+$25.79	58% 41483-30105 (71588)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Shenzhen Leopardsavg 29.4¢	$5.26	$5.75	+$0.48	52% 3994-3636 (7630)

38791873984189

Jilin Northeast Tigers

Invested

$520.88

Value

$475.88

PnL

-$31.22

Record

46%

7925-9338 (17263)

omnibus-076daa

Jilin Northeast Tigers

Invested

$306.48

Value

$306.06

PnL

-$0.42

Record

49%

18975-19389 (38364)

poshposh

Jilin Northeast Tigers

Invested

$228.92

Value

$225.52

PnL

-$3.4

Record

59%

9909-6885 (16794)

LeLynxMalynx

Jilin Northeast Tigers

Invested

$127.19

Value

$124.62

PnL

-$2.57

Record

58%

28411-20971 (49382)

tradecraft

Jilin Northeast Tigers

Invested

$82.72

Value

$107.55

PnL

+$28.66

Record

51%

5972-5662 (11634)

GamblingAddict12345<$100

Jilin Northeast Tigers

Invested

$71.19

Value

$81.87

PnL

+$10.68

Record

51%

3920-3835 (7755)

mishipolis<$100

Jilin Northeast Tigers

Invested

$24.68

Value

$28.38

PnL

+$3.7

Record

50%

4505-4439 (8944)

BayupatiCTR<$100

Shenzhen Leopards

Invested

$18.18

Value

$17.1

PnL

-$1.08

Record

51%

219-209 (428)

VeryLucky888

Jilin Northeast Tigers

Invested

$484.59

Value

$6.45

PnL

+$25.79

Record

58%

41483-30105 (71588)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Shenzhen Leopards

Invested

$5.26

Value

$5.75

PnL

+$0.48

Record

52%

3994-3636 (7630)

Research grade

AvoidJilin Northeast Tigers at 69%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Jilin Northeast Tigers

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on Jilin Northeast Tigers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJilin Northeast Tigers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJilin Northeast Tigers 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedJilin Northeast Tigers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Jilin Northeast Tigers 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jilin Northeast Tigers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.