Jilin Northeast Tigers vs. Guangzhou Loong Lions

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Jilin Northeast Tigers (64%) · Jilin Northeast Tigers at 60¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 8

Jilin Northeast Tigers60¢Guangzhou Loong Lions40¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jilin Northeast Tigers

Consensus Traders

Jilin Northeast Tigers 64%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.8K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Entry

54.5¢ → 59.5¢

+9% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidJilin Northeast Tigers at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jilin Northeast Tigers

7 of 11 top traders (64%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Jilin Northeast Tigers60%

Guangzhou Loong Lions41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jilin Northeast Tigers7 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares7,634

Combined PnL$-1.8K

Guangzhou Loong Lions4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,780

Combined PnL+$266.18

Jilin Northeast Tigers — 64%Guangzhou Loong Lions — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+29 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Jilin Northeast Tigers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGuangzhou Loong Lions 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrJilin Northeast Tigers 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedJilin Northeast Tigers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Jilin Northeast Tigers 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Guangzhou Loong Lionsavg 48¢	$3.4K	$3.1K	-$267.21	48% 1059-1161 (2220)
└ Guangzhou Loong Lions leg	Guangzhou Loong Lionsavg 48¢	$2.8K	$2.3K	-$564.41
└ Jilin Northeast Tigers leg	Jilin Northeast Tigersavg 38.8¢	$508.76	$805.96	+$297.2
QU QuentinChen	Jilin Northeast Tigersavg 54.8¢	$4.0K	$2.2K	$-1.8K	47% 321-366 (687)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Guangzhou Loong Lionsavg 44.5¢	$983.87	$985.14	+$1.27	59% 46876-33139 (80015)
└ Guangzhou Loong Lions leg	Guangzhou Loong Lionsavg 44.5¢	$536.63	$602.8	+$66.17
└ Jilin Northeast Tigers leg	Jilin Northeast Tigersavg 58.5¢	$447.24	$382.34	-$64.9
LU LuckyLooCTR	Guangzhou Loong Lionsavg 45¢	$282.95	$418.11	+$135.17	49% 13009-13568 (26577)
TO torta.techCTR	Guangzhou Loong Lionsavg 44¢	$190.52	$303.1	+$112.58	62% 8223-4934 (13157)
poshposhCTR	Guangzhou Loong Lionsavg 48.6¢	$303.64	$294.66	-$8.98	58% 10646-7629 (18275)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Jilin Northeast Tigersavg 56.5¢	$165.34	$153.05	-$10.99	57% 29224-21607 (50831)
└ Guangzhou Loong Lions leg	Guangzhou Loong Lionsavg 45.2¢	$64.21	$99.34	+$30.17
└ Jilin Northeast Tigers leg	Jilin Northeast Tigersavg 56.5¢	$101.13	$53.71	-$41.16
tradecraftCTR	Guangzhou Loong Lionsavg 43.8¢	$87.6	$140.01	+$27.42	51% 6070-5791 (11861)
BI BIAVN<$100	Jilin Northeast Tigersavg 56¢	$78.34	$86.04	+$7.69	48% 236-255 (491)
HRTrading<$100	Jilin Northeast Tigersavg 36.4¢	$46.43	$56.93	+$10.5	53% 5597-5025 (10622)
VeryLucky888<$100	Jilin Northeast Tigersavg 57.3¢	$59.71	$31.21	-$28.49	58% 42662-31048 (73710)
MI mishipolis<$100	Jilin Northeast Tigersavg 20¢	$7.27	$19.73	+$3.34	50% 4582-4519 (9101)
PA panpidaras1<$100	Jilin Northeast Tigersavg 46¢	$9.19	$5.99	-$3.2	51% 209-204 (413)
GG GGLPL<$100	Jilin Northeast Tigersavg 54.5¢	$5.93	$3.26	-$2.94	50% 697-693 (1390)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Guangzhou Loong Lions

Invested

$3,353.29

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$267.21

Record

48%

1059-1161 (2220)

Both legs:

Guangzhou Loong Lions$2,844.5348¢-$564.41

Jilin Northeast Tigers$508.7638.8¢+$297.2

QuentinChen

Jilin Northeast Tigers

Invested

$3,970.04

Value

$2.2K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

47%

321-366 (687)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Guangzhou Loong Lions

Invested

$983.87

Value

$985.14

PnL

+$1.27

Record

59%

46876-33139 (80015)

Both legs:

Guangzhou Loong Lions$536.6344.5¢+$66.17

Jilin Northeast Tigers$447.2458.5¢-$64.9

LuckyLooCTR

Guangzhou Loong Lions

Invested

$282.95

Value

$418.11

PnL

+$135.17

Record

49%

13009-13568 (26577)

torta.techCTR

Guangzhou Loong Lions

Invested

$190.52

Value

$303.1

PnL

+$112.58

Record

62%

8223-4934 (13157)

poshposhCTR

Guangzhou Loong Lions

Invested

$303.64

Value

$294.66

PnL

-$8.98

Record

58%

10646-7629 (18275)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Jilin Northeast Tigers

Invested

$165.34

Value

$153.05

PnL

-$10.99

Record

57%

29224-21607 (50831)

Both legs:

Guangzhou Loong Lions$64.2145.2¢+$30.17

Jilin Northeast Tigers$101.1356.5¢-$41.16

tradecraftCTR

Guangzhou Loong Lions

Invested

$87.6

Value

$140.01

PnL

+$27.42

Record

51%

6070-5791 (11861)

BIAVN<$100

Jilin Northeast Tigers

Invested

$78.34

Value

$86.04

PnL

+$7.69

Record

48%

236-255 (491)

HRTrading<$100

Jilin Northeast Tigers

Invested

$46.43

Value

$56.93

PnL

+$10.5

Record

53%

5597-5025 (10622)

VeryLucky888<$100

Jilin Northeast Tigers

Invested

$59.71

Value

$31.21

PnL

-$28.49

Record

58%

42662-31048 (73710)

mishipolis<$100

Jilin Northeast Tigers

Invested

$7.27

Value

$19.73

PnL

+$3.34

Record

50%

4582-4519 (9101)

panpidaras1<$100

Jilin Northeast Tigers

Invested

$9.19

Value

$5.99

PnL

-$3.2

Record

51%

209-204 (413)

GGLPL<$100

Jilin Northeast Tigers

Invested

$5.93

Value

$3.26

PnL

-$2.94

Record

50%

697-693 (1390)

Research grade

AvoidJilin Northeast Tigers at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Jilin Northeast Tigers

7 of 11 top traders (64%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+29 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Jilin Northeast Tigers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGuangzhou Loong Lions 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrJilin Northeast Tigers 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedJilin Northeast Tigers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Jilin Northeast Tigers 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jilin Northeast Tigers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.