Spread: Shanxi Loongs (-6.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Shanxi Loongs (67%) · Shanxi Loongs at 80¢ · $72 held · ended Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Shanxi Loongs
6
Shanxi Loongs 67%
$72.02
-$21.15
Research grade
AvoidShanxi Loongs at 80%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Shanxi Loongsavg 55¢ | $32.9 | $27.56 | -$5.34 | 58% 28411-20971 (49382) |
 Basquetipster<$100 | Shanxi Loongsavg 41¢ | $20.5 | $21 | +$0.5 | 68% 1662-766 (2428) |
BA Bayupati<$100 | Shanxi Loongsavg 44¢ | $15.78 | $15.07 | -$0.72 | 51% 219-209 (428) |
 poshposh<$100 | Shanxi Loongsavg 42¢ | $3.71 | $3.71 | +$0 | 59% 9909-6885 (16794) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Guangzhou Loong Lionsavg 51.3¢ | $248.81 | $2.36 | -$15.63 | 58% 41483-30105 (71588) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Guangzhou Loong Lionsavg 57¢ | $2.28 | $2.32 | +$0.04 | 52% 3994-3636 (7630) |
Invested
$32.9
Value
$27.56
PnL
-$5.34
Record
58%
28411-20971 (49382)
Basquetipster<$100Invested
$20.5
Value
$21
PnL
+$0.5
Record
68%
1662-766 (2428)
Invested
$15.78
Value
$15.07
PnL
-$0.72
Record
51%
219-209 (428)
poshposh<$100Invested
$3.71
Value
$3.71
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
9909-6885 (16794)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$248.81
Value
$2.36
PnL
-$15.63
Record
58%
41483-30105 (71588)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.28
Value
$2.32
PnL
+$0.04
Record
52%
3994-3636 (7630)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.