Guangzhou Loong Lions vs. Shanxi Loongs

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Shanxi Loongs (57%) · Shanxi Loongs at 72¢ · $560 held · ends Nov 6

Guangzhou Loong Lions28¢Shanxi Loongs72¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Shanxi Loongs

Consensus Traders

Shanxi Loongs 57%

Total Value

$559.73

Combined PnL

-$67.64

Smart Money Entry

83.5¢ → 71.5¢

-14% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidShanxi Loongs at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Shanxi Loongs

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Guangzhou Loong Lions28%

Shanxi Loongs72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Shanxi Loongs4 traders

Total Value$477.09

Total Shares586

Combined PnL-$58.32

Guangzhou Loong Lions3 traders

Total Value$82.64

Total Shares517

Combined PnL-$9.32

Shanxi Loongs — 57%Guangzhou Loong Lions — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Shanxi Loongs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Guangzhou Loong Lions) and the top 1000 (6 on Shanxi Loongs) disagree here.

ctrGuangzhou Loong Lions 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedGuangzhou Loong Lions 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Shanxi Loongs 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BA Bagwell306	Shanxi Loongsavg 84¢	$246.96	$211.68	-$35.28	59% 4035-2851 (6886)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Shanxi Loongsavg 84¢	$150.89	$150.89	+$0	47% 2461-2764 (5225)
VeryLucky888	Shanxi Loongsavg 81.3¢	$354	$104.44	-$23.04	58% 41434-30051 (71485)
poshposhCTR<$100	Guangzhou Loong Lionsavg 19.6¢	$49.98	$40.84	-$9.13	59% 9826-6844 (16670)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Guangzhou Loong Lionsavg 16¢	$40.8	$40.8	+$0	53% 367-326 (693)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Shanxi Loongsavg 84¢	$10.08	$10.08	+$0	58% 28351-20930 (49281)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Guangzhou Loong Lionsavg 19¢	$1.19	$1	-$0.19	52% 3925-3577 (7502)

Bagwell306

Shanxi Loongs

Invested

$246.96

Value

$211.68

PnL

-$35.28

Record

59%

4035-2851 (6886)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Shanxi Loongs

Invested

$150.89

Value

$150.89

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

2461-2764 (5225)

VeryLucky888

Shanxi Loongs

Invested

$354

Value

$104.44

PnL

-$23.04

Record

58%

41434-30051 (71485)

poshposhCTR<$100

Guangzhou Loong Lions

Invested

$49.98

Value

$40.84

PnL

-$9.13

Record

59%

9826-6844 (16670)

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Guangzhou Loong Lions

Invested

$40.8

Value

$40.8

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

367-326 (693)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Shanxi Loongs

Invested

$10.08

Value

$10.08

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

28351-20930 (49281)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Guangzhou Loong Lions

Invested

$1.19

Value

PnL

-$0.19

Record

52%

3925-3577 (7502)

Research grade

AvoidShanxi Loongs at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Shanxi Loongs

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Shanxi Loongs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Guangzhou Loong Lions) and the top 1000 (6 on Shanxi Loongs) disagree here.

ctrGuangzhou Loong Lions 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedGuangzhou Loong Lions 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Shanxi Loongs 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Shanxi Loongs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.