Guangdong Southern Tigers vs. Jiangsu Dragons

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Guangdong Southern Tigers (50%) · Guangdong Southern Tigers at 74¢ · $531 held · ends Nov 5

Guangdong Southern Tigers74¢Jiangsu Dragons26¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Guangdong Southern Tigers

Consensus Traders

Guangdong Southern Tigers 50%

Total Value

$531.37

Combined PnL

-$132.01

Smart Money Entry

77.8¢ → 73.5¢

-5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidGuangdong Southern Tigers at 74%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Guangdong Southern Tigers

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Guangdong Southern Tigers74%

Jiangsu Dragons27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jiangsu Dragons4 traders

Total Value$285.49

Total Shares931

Combined PnL-$5.87

Guangdong Southern Tigers4 traders

Total Value$245.88

Total Shares474

Combined PnL-$126.13

Jiangsu Dragons — 50%Guangdong Southern Tigers — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Jiangsu Dragonsavg 31.3¢	$225.8	$209.13	-$16.67	49% 667-689 (1356)
SN SnakeBall	Guangdong Southern Tigersavg 76¢	$231.8	$152.5	-$79.3	50% 33056-32624 (65680)
UP UpTheBlues	Guangdong Southern Tigersavg 81.2¢	$117.15	$72.18	-$44.97	59% 45090-31481 (76571)
VeryLucky888CTR	Jiangsu Dragonsavg 21.2¢	$156.33	$61.91	+$9.15	58% 41203-29875 (71078)
poshposh<$100	Guangdong Southern Tigersavg 79.8¢	$21.48	$20.19	-$1.29	59% 9671-6655 (16326)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Jiangsu Dragonsavg 24¢	$10.8	$9.45	-$1.35	59% 30209-20922 (51131)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Jiangsu Dragonsavg 20¢	$2	$5	+$3	51% 5921-5596 (11517)
HRTrading<$100	Guangdong Southern Tigersavg 78¢	$1.58	$1.01	-$0.57	52% 3684-3346 (7030)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Jiangsu Dragons

Invested

$225.8

Value

$209.13

PnL

-$16.67

Record

49%

667-689 (1356)

SnakeBall

Guangdong Southern Tigers

Invested

$231.8

Value

$152.5

PnL

-$79.3

Record

50%

33056-32624 (65680)

UpTheBlues

Guangdong Southern Tigers

Invested

$117.15

Value

$72.18

PnL

-$44.97

Record

59%

45090-31481 (76571)

VeryLucky888CTR

Jiangsu Dragons

Invested

$156.33

Value

$61.91

PnL

+$9.15

Record

58%

41203-29875 (71078)

poshposh<$100

Guangdong Southern Tigers

Invested

$21.48

Value

$20.19

PnL

-$1.29

Record

59%

9671-6655 (16326)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Jiangsu Dragons

Invested

$10.8

Value

$9.45

PnL

-$1.35

Record

59%

30209-20922 (51131)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Jiangsu Dragons

Invested

Value

PnL

+$3

Record

51%

5921-5596 (11517)

HRTrading<$100

Guangdong Southern Tigers

Invested

$1.58

Value

$1.01

PnL

-$0.57

Record

52%

3684-3346 (7030)

Research grade

AvoidGuangdong Southern Tigers at 74%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Guangdong Southern Tigers

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Guangdong Southern Tigers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.