Fujian Sturgeons vs. Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin (60%) · Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin at 64¢ · $604 held · ends Nov 5
⚠️
Avoid
Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin
5
Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin 60%
1 arb excluded
$603.65
-$140.71
68.5¢ → 64¢
-7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidShandong Hi-Speed Kirin at 64%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Shandong Hi-Speed Kirinavg 70¢ | $202.67 | $205.55 | +$2.88 | 59% 44951-31350 (76301) |
| └ Fujian Sturgeons leg | Fujian Sturgeonsavg 33¢ | $75.9 | $115 | +$39.1 | |
| └ Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin leg | Shandong Hi-Speed Kirinavg 70¢ | $126.77 | $90.55 | -$36.22 | |
SN SnakeBall | Shandong Hi-Speed Kirinavg 68.6¢ | $242.43 | $176.61 | -$65.82 | 50% 32976-32521 (65497) |
 VeryLucky888 | Shandong Hi-Speed Kirinavg 69.2¢ | $229.92 | $158.81 | -$61.58 | 58% 41092-29767 (70859) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Shandong Hi-Speed Kirinavg 66¢ | $65.65 | $49.73 | -$15.92 | 49% 18770-19171 (37941) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Fujian Sturgeonsavg 30.4¢ | $8.83 | $10.44 | +$1.61 | 53% 3488-3134 (6622) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Fujian Sturgeonsavg 30¢ | $1.5 | $2.5 | +$1 | 49% 12328-12593 (24921) |
Invested
$202.67
Value
$205.55
PnL
+$2.88
Record
59%
44951-31350 (76301)
Both legs:
Invested
$242.43
Value
$176.61
PnL
-$65.82
Record
50%
32976-32521 (65497)
VeryLucky888Invested
$229.92
Value
$158.81
PnL
-$61.58
Record
58%
41092-29767 (70859)
Invested
$65.65
Value
$49.73
PnL
-$15.92
Record
49%
18770-19171 (37941)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$8.83
Value
$10.44
PnL
+$1.61
Record
53%
3488-3134 (6622)
Invested
$1.5
Value
$2.5
PnL
+$1
Record
49%
12328-12593 (24921)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.