Fujian Sturgeons vs. Qingdao Eagles

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Qingdao Eagles (30%) · Qingdao Eagles at 59¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 7

Fujian Sturgeons42¢Qingdao Eagles58¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Qingdao Eagles

Consensus Traders

Qingdao Eagles 30%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.7K

Combined PnL

$54.98

Smart Money Entry

55.3¢ → 58.5¢

+6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidQingdao Eagles at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Qingdao Eagles

3 of 10 top traders (30%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Fujian Sturgeons42%

Qingdao Eagles59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Qingdao Eagles3 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares10,774

Combined PnL+$94.35

Fujian Sturgeons7 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares5,425

Combined PnL-$39.37

Qingdao Eagles — 30%Fujian Sturgeons — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Qingdao Eagles. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFujian Sturgeons 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrFujian Sturgeons 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedFujian Sturgeons 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Fujian Sturgeons 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU QuentinChen	Qingdao Eaglesavg 55.7¢	$5.4K	$5.5K	+$75.57	47% 318-360 (678)
NO NotradecopyCTR	Fujian Sturgeonsavg 44¢	$999.99	$988.63	-$11.36	49% 3921-4114 (8035)
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR	Fujian Sturgeonsavg 44¢	$999.99	$988.63	-$11.36	51% 3927-3841 (7768)
RU Ruler11	Qingdao Eaglesavg 50¢	$473.89	$530.76	+$28.43	51% 300-289 (589)
poshposhCTR	Fujian Sturgeonsavg 44.5¢	$249.48	$243.69	-$5.79	59% 10106-7093 (17199)
MI mishipolisARB<$100	Qingdao Eaglesavg 57¢	$187.75	$185.88	-$0.88	50% 4535-4477 (9012)
└ Qingdao Eagles leg	Qingdao Eaglesavg 57¢	$99.75	$98.87	-$0.88
└ Fujian Sturgeons leg	Fujian Sturgeonsavg 44¢	$88	$87	+$0
VeryLucky888	Qingdao Eaglesavg 61¢	$131.05	$61.5	-$9.65	58% 41809-30357 (72166)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Qingdao Eaglesavg 60¢	$61.38	$61.04	-$0.33	59% 45710-32050 (77760)
└ Qingdao Eagles leg	Qingdao Eaglesavg 60¢	$31.47	$32.26	+$0.79
└ Fujian Sturgeons leg	Fujian Sturgeonsavg 40¢	$29.91	$28.79	-$1.12
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Fujian Sturgeonsavg 45.7¢	$56.04	$53.82	-$2.22	58% 28639-21134 (49773)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Fujian Sturgeonsavg 44.3¢	$44.35	$35.55	-$8.8	51% 5997-5693 (11690)
BA BayupatiCTR<$100	Fujian Sturgeonsavg 39¢	$30.28	$31.44	+$1.16	51% 225-217 (442)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Fujian Sturgeonsavg 50¢	$16.68	$14.68	-$1	53% 4456-4025 (8481)

QuentinChen

Qingdao Eagles

Invested

$5,419.61

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$75.57

Record

47%

318-360 (678)

NotradecopyCTR

Fujian Sturgeons

Invested

$999.99

Value

$988.63

PnL

-$11.36

Record

49%

3921-4114 (8035)

GamblingAddict12345CTR

Fujian Sturgeons

Invested

$999.99

Value

$988.63

PnL

-$11.36

Record

51%

3927-3841 (7768)

Ruler11

Qingdao Eagles

Invested

$473.89

Value

$530.76

PnL

+$28.43

Record

51%

300-289 (589)

poshposhCTR

Fujian Sturgeons

Invested

$249.48

Value

$243.69

PnL

-$5.79

Record

59%

10106-7093 (17199)

mishipolisARB<$100

Qingdao Eagles

Invested

$187.75

Value

$185.88

PnL

-$0.88

Record

50%

4535-4477 (9012)

Both legs:

Qingdao Eagles$99.7557¢-$0.88

Fujian Sturgeons$8844¢+$0

VeryLucky888

Qingdao Eagles

Invested

$131.05

Value

$61.5

PnL

-$9.65

Record

58%

41809-30357 (72166)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Qingdao Eagles

Invested

$61.38

Value

$61.04

PnL

-$0.33

Record

59%

45710-32050 (77760)

Both legs:

Qingdao Eagles$31.4760¢+$0.79

Fujian Sturgeons$29.9140¢-$1.12

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Fujian Sturgeons

Invested

$56.04

Value

$53.82

PnL

-$2.22

Record

58%

28639-21134 (49773)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Fujian Sturgeons

Invested

$44.35

Value

$35.55

PnL

-$8.8

Record

51%

5997-5693 (11690)

BayupatiCTR<$100

Fujian Sturgeons

Invested

$30.28

Value

$31.44

PnL

+$1.16

Record

51%

225-217 (442)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Fujian Sturgeons

Invested

$16.68

Value

$14.68

PnL

-$1

Record

53%

4456-4025 (8481)

Research grade

AvoidQingdao Eagles at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Qingdao Eagles

3 of 10 top traders (30%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Qingdao Eagles. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFujian Sturgeons 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrFujian Sturgeons 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedFujian Sturgeons 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Fujian Sturgeons 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Qingdao Eagles wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.