Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Xinjiang Flying Tigers, while the market favors Beijing Royal Fighters (65%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Beijing Royal Fighters vs. Xinjiang Flying Tigers

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Xinjiang Flying Tigers (29%) · Xinjiang Flying Tigers at 35¢ · $779 held · ends Nov 7

Beijing Royal Fighters65¢Xinjiang Flying Tigers35¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Xinjiang Flying Tigers

Consensus Traders

Xinjiang Flying Tigers 29%

Total Value

$779.48

Combined PnL

$19.7

Smart Money Entry

31.4¢ → 35¢

+12% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidXinjiang Flying Tigers at 35%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Xinjiang Flying Tigers

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Beijing Royal Fighters 65%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Beijing Royal Fighters65%

Xinjiang Flying Tigers35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Xinjiang Flying Tigers2 traders

Total Value$491.58

Total Shares1,293

Combined PnL+$17.96

Beijing Royal Fighters5 traders

Total Value$287.9

Total Shares403

Combined PnL+$1.74

Xinjiang Flying Tigers — 29%Beijing Royal Fighters — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Xinjiang Flying Tigersavg 31.4¢	$471.48	$489.81	+$18.33	48% 920-988 (1908)
OM omnibus-076daa	Beijing Royal Fightersavg 65¢	$140.96	$138.8	-$2.16	49% 19156-19549 (38705)
FR freeman123	Beijing Royal Fightersavg 78¢	$117	$120	+$3	82% 544-123 (667)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Beijing Royal Fightersavg 76.3¢	$15.77	$16.54	+$0.77	58% 28689-21179 (49868)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Beijing Royal Fightersavg 80¢	$8.45	$8.55	+$0.11	59% 30467-21185 (51652)
HRTrading<$100	Beijing Royal Fightersavg 77¢	$3.85	$4	+$0.03	53% 4616-4152 (8768)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100	Xinjiang Flying Tigersavg 23¢	$2.14	$1.77	-$0.37	55% 1742-1435 (3177)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Xinjiang Flying Tigers

Invested

$471.48

Value

$489.81

PnL

+$18.33

Record

48%

920-988 (1908)

omnibus-076daa

Beijing Royal Fighters

Invested

$140.96

Value

$138.8

PnL

-$2.16

Record

49%

19156-19549 (38705)

freeman123

Beijing Royal Fighters

Invested

$117

Value

$120

PnL

+$3

Record

82%

544-123 (667)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Beijing Royal Fighters

Invested

$15.77

Value

$16.54

PnL

+$0.77

Record

58%

28689-21179 (49868)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Beijing Royal Fighters

Invested

$8.45

Value

$8.55

PnL

+$0.11

Record

59%

30467-21185 (51652)

HRTrading<$100

Beijing Royal Fighters

Invested

$3.85

Value

PnL

+$0.03

Record

53%

4616-4152 (8768)

VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100

Xinjiang Flying Tigers

Invested

$2.14

Value

$1.77

PnL

-$0.37

Record

55%

1742-1435 (3177)

Research grade

AvoidXinjiang Flying Tigers at 35%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Xinjiang Flying Tigers

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Beijing Royal Fighters 65%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Xinjiang Flying Tigers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.2%

35.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$169.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

269.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.