Beijing Royal Fighters vs. Sichuan Blue Whales
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Beijing Royal Fighters (40%) · Beijing Royal Fighters at 96¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 5
⚠️
Avoid
Beijing Royal Fighters
5
Beijing Royal Fighters 40%
$1.6K
$17.04
93.9¢ → 96.2¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidBeijing Royal Fighters at 96%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Beijing Royal Fighters. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Beijing Royal Fightersavg 94.1¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$21.07 | 59% 44951-31350 (76301) |
 RollAwayTheDew | Beijing Royal Fightersavg 92¢ | $155 | $146.48 | +$3.88 | 53% 337-302 (639) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Sichuan Blue Whalesavg 5.7¢ | $5.82 | $4.56 | -$1.26 | 49% 12328-12593 (24921) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Sichuan Blue Whalesavg 3.3¢ | $0.84 | $1.22 | +$0.38 | 53% 3488-3134 (6622) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Sichuan Blue Whalesavg 6¢ | $18 | $0.15 | -$7.03 | 58% 41092-29767 (70859) |
Invested
$1,403.5
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$21.07
Record
59%
44951-31350 (76301)
RollAwayTheDewInvested
$155
Value
$146.48
PnL
+$3.88
Record
53%
337-302 (639)
Invested
$5.82
Value
$4.56
PnL
-$1.26
Record
49%
12328-12593 (24921)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$0.84
Value
$1.22
PnL
+$0.38
Record
53%
3488-3134 (6622)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$18
Value
$0.15
PnL
-$7.03
Record
58%
41092-29767 (70859)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.