Beijing Ducks vs. Zhejiang Lions
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Beijing Ducks (86%) · Beijing Ducks at 91¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 8
⚠️
Avoid
Beijing Ducks
7
Beijing Ducks 86%
$12.3K
-$11.07
90.8¢ → 90.5¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidBeijing Ducks at 91%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Beijing Ducks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FR freeman123 | Beijing Ducksavg 91.8¢ | $5.6K | $5.6K | +$14.59 | 82% 552-125 (677) |
 ComingBack | Beijing Ducksavg 90¢ | $5.2K | $5.3K | -$28.97 | 61% 3964-2495 (6459) |
UP UpTheBlues | Beijing Ducksavg 89.9¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$0.65 | 59% 46853-33124 (79977) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Beijing Ducksavg 91¢ | $159.24 | $158.37 | -$0.87 | 50% 19424-19795 (39219) |
 RollAwayTheDew | Beijing Ducksavg 91¢ | $127.4 | $128.8 | -$0.7 | 53% 452-396 (848) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Beijing Ducksavg 89¢ | $44.5 | $45.25 | +$0.75 | 51% 6065-5785 (11850) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Zhejiang Lionsavg 9.5¢ | $58.44 | $11.42 | +$3.48 | 58% 42636-31031 (73667) |
Invested
$5,559.99
Value
$5.6K
PnL
+$14.59
Record
82%
552-125 (677)
ComingBackInvested
$5,220
Value
$5.3K
PnL
-$28.97
Record
61%
3964-2495 (6459)
Invested
$1,084.78
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$0.65
Record
59%
46853-33124 (79977)
Invested
$159.24
Value
$158.37
PnL
-$0.87
Record
50%
19424-19795 (39219)
RollAwayTheDewInvested
$127.4
Value
$128.8
PnL
-$0.7
Record
53%
452-396 (848)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$44.5
Value
$45.25
PnL
+$0.75
Record
51%
6065-5785 (11850)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$58.44
Value
$11.42
PnL
+$3.48
Record
58%
42636-31031 (73667)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.