Korfez Basket vs. Trabzonspor

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Trabzonspor (67%) · Trabzonspor at 100¢ · $466 held · ends Nov 7

Korfez Basket<1¢Trabzonspor>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trabzonspor

Consensus Traders

Trabzonspor 67%

Total Value

$465.86

Combined PnL

-$0.02

Smart Money Entry

86.2¢ → 100¢

+16% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrabzonspor at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trabzonspor

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Korfez Basket0%

Trabzonspor100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trabzonspor4 traders

Total Value$420.47

Total Shares447

Combined PnL+$10.6

Korfez Basket2 traders

Total Value$45.39

Total Shares189

Combined PnL-$10.63

Trabzonspor — 67%Korfez Basket — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LO looppau	Trabzonsporavg 99.9¢	$256.93	$257.06	+$0.13	99% 10916-66 (10982)
poshposh	Trabzonsporavg 70.2¢	$86.77	$103.45	+$16.68	59% 10176-7169 (17345)
US User7429<$100	Trabzonsporavg 67¢	$40.2	$33	-$7.2	55% 8305-6697 (15002)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Trabzonsporavg 59¢	$25.97	$26.96	+$0.99	58% 28695-21181 (49876)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Korfez Basketavg 20.4¢	$29.81	$24.87	-$4.94	59% 30472-21186 (51658)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100	Korfez Basketavg 45¢	$26.2	$20.51	-$5.69	85% 5317-914 (6231)

looppau

Trabzonspor

Invested

$256.93

Value

$257.06

PnL

+$0.13

Record

99%

10916-66 (10982)

poshposh

Trabzonspor

Invested

$86.77

Value

$103.45

PnL

+$16.68

Record

59%

10176-7169 (17345)

User7429<$100

Trabzonspor

Invested

$40.2

Value

$33

PnL

-$7.2

Record

55%

8305-6697 (15002)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Trabzonspor

Invested

$25.97

Value

$26.96

PnL

+$0.99

Record

58%

28695-21181 (49876)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Korfez Basket

Invested

$29.81

Value

$24.87

PnL

-$4.94

Record

59%

30472-21186 (51658)

ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100

Korfez Basket

Invested

$26.2

Value

$20.51

PnL

-$5.69

Record

85%

5317-914 (6231)

Research grade

AvoidTrabzonspor at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Trabzonspor

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trabzonspor wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.