Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Galatasaray, while the market favors Korfez Basket (50%). 0 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Korfez Basket vs. Galatasaray

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Galatasaray (22%) · Galatasaray at 50¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 21

Korfez Basket50¢Galatasaray50¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Galatasaray

Consensus Traders

Galatasaray 22%

Total Value

$8.5K

Combined PnL

-$57.21

Smart Money Entry

53.4¢ → 50¢

-6% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidGalatasaray at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Galatasaray

2 of 9 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors Korfez Basket 50%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Korfez Basket50%

Galatasaray50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Galatasaray2 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares8,678

Combined PnL-$294.41

Korfez Basket7 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares8,360

Combined PnL+$237.2

Galatasaray — 22%Korfez Basket — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Galatasaray. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Korfez Basket) and the top 1000 (4 on Galatasaray) disagree here.

sharpGalatasaray 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrKorfez Basket 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedKorfez Basket 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Galatasaray 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ST stepanka1234	Galatasarayavg 53.4¢	$4.6K	$4.3K	-$293.43	— 8-8 (16)
NO Notradecopy	Korfez Basketavg 47¢	$1,000	$1.1K	+$53.19	19% 44-191 (235)
GA GamblingAddict12345	Korfez Basketavg 47¢	$1,000	$1.1K	+$53.19	52% 37-34 (71)
38 38791873984189	Korfez Basketavg 46.9¢	$663.58	$678.68	+$29.81	48% 3130-3418 (6548)
CI cigarettes	Korfez Basketavg 45.6¢	$569.49	$618.74	+$49.25	53% 6961-6129 (13090)
poshposh	Korfez Basketavg 45.3¢	$402.82	$439.71	+$36.89	48% 1065-1141 (2206)
VeryLucky888	Korfez Basketavg 46.8¢	$216.89	$229.2	+$12.32	53% 1284-1125 (2409)
BA Bagwell306<$100	Korfez Basketavg 46.8¢	$55.28	$57.82	+$2.54	33% 67-137 (204)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Galatasarayavg 50.7¢	$39.61	$38.64	-$0.97	46% 469-554 (1023)

stepanka1234

Galatasaray

Invested

$4,593.21

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$293.43

Record

—

8-8 (16)

Notradecopy

Korfez Basket

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$53.19

Record

19%

44-191 (235)

GamblingAddict12345

Korfez Basket

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$53.19

Record

52%

37-34 (71)

38791873984189

Korfez Basket

Invested

$663.58

Value

$678.68

PnL

+$29.81

Record

48%

3130-3418 (6548)

cigarettes

Korfez Basket

Invested

$569.49

Value

$618.74

PnL

+$49.25

Record

53%

6961-6129 (13090)

poshposh

Korfez Basket

Invested

$402.82

Value

$439.71

PnL

+$36.89

Record

48%

1065-1141 (2206)

VeryLucky888

Korfez Basket

Invested

$216.89

Value

$229.2

PnL

+$12.32

Record

53%

1284-1125 (2409)

Bagwell306<$100

Korfez Basket

Invested

$55.28

Value

$57.82

PnL

+$2.54

Record

33%

67-137 (204)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Galatasaray

Invested

$39.61

Value

$38.64

PnL

-$0.97

Record

46%

469-554 (1023)

Research grade

AvoidGalatasaray at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Galatasaray

2 of 9 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors Korfez Basket 50%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Galatasaray. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Korfez Basket) and the top 1000 (4 on Galatasaray) disagree here.

sharpGalatasaray 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrKorfez Basket 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedKorfez Basket 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Galatasaray 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Galatasaray wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.2%

50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$91.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

191.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.