Fenerbahce vs. Tofas

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Fenerbahce (50%) · Fenerbahce at 79¢ · $855 held · ends Nov 8

Fenerbahce79¢Tofas21¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Fenerbahce

Consensus Traders

Fenerbahce 50%

Total Value

$854.61

Combined PnL

$510.32

Smart Money Entry

93.4¢ → 79¢

-15% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidFenerbahce at 79%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Fenerbahce

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Fenerbahce79%

Tofas21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tofas2 traders

Total Value$693.05

Total Shares3,009

Combined PnL+$525.28

Fenerbahce2 traders

Total Value$161.56

Total Shares187

Combined PnL-$14.96

Tofas — 50%Fenerbahce — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBallCTR	Tofasavg 4¢	$167.59	$692.85	+$525.26	50% 33839-33425 (67264)
HRTrading	Fenerbahceavg 96.8¢	$136.52	$119.43	-$17.09	53% 5610-5034 (10644)
Basquetipster<$100	Fenerbahceavg 85¢	$40	$42.13	+$2.13	68% 1673-770 (2443)
poshposhCTR<$100	Tofasavg 9¢	$0.18	$0.2	+$0.02	58% 10657-7637 (18294)

SnakeBallCTR

Tofas

Invested

$167.59

Value

$692.85

PnL

+$525.26

Record

50%

33839-33425 (67264)

HRTrading

Fenerbahce

Invested

$136.52

Value

$119.43

PnL

-$17.09

Record

53%

5610-5034 (10644)

Basquetipster<$100

Fenerbahce

Invested

$40

Value

$42.13

PnL

+$2.13

Record

68%

1673-770 (2443)

poshposhCTR<$100

Tofas

Invested

$0.18

Value

$0.2

PnL

+$0.02

Record

58%

10657-7637 (18294)

Research grade

AvoidFenerbahce at 79%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Fenerbahce

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Fenerbahce wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.8%

79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.