Bursaspor vs. Karsiyaka
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Karsiyaka (43%) · Karsiyaka at 51¢ · $541 held · ends Nov 8
⚠️
Avoid
Karsiyaka
7
Karsiyaka 43%
$540.65
$23.05
51.6¢ → 51¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidKarsiyaka at 51%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Karsiyakaavg 52.6¢ | $244.41 | $253.18 | +$8.77 | 50% 19450-19817 (39267) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Bursasporavg 57.9¢ | $158.54 | $161.79 | +$3.24 | 57% 29237-21620 (50857) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Bursasporavg 55.7¢ | $73.75 | $79.74 | +$5.98 | 51% 6078-5799 (11877) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100 | Karsiyakaavg 41.2¢ | $27.31 | $30.77 | +$4.21 | 85% 5885-1004 (6889) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Karsiyakaavg 38.3¢ | $6.27 | $7.02 | +$0.75 | 53% 5640-5054 (10694) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Bursasporavg 57¢ | $6.38 | $6.3 | -$0.08 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Bursasporavg 54¢ | $1.68 | $1.85 | +$0.17 | 58% 10670-7656 (18326) |
Invested
$244.41
Value
$253.18
PnL
+$8.77
Record
50%
19450-19817 (39267)
Invested
$158.54
Value
$161.79
PnL
+$3.24
Record
57%
29237-21620 (50857)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$73.75
Value
$79.74
PnL
+$5.98
Record
51%
6078-5799 (11877)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100Invested
$27.31
Value
$30.77
PnL
+$4.21
Record
85%
5885-1004 (6889)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$6.27
Value
$7.02
PnL
+$0.75
Record
53%
5640-5054 (10694)
Invested
$6.38
Value
$6.3
PnL
-$0.08
Record
49%
13022-13588 (26610)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$1.68
Value
$1.85
PnL
+$0.17
Record
58%
10670-7656 (18326)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.