Bandirma Bordo vs. Bahcesehir Koleji

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Bandirma Bordo (40%) · Bandirma Bordo at 100¢ · $341 held · ends Nov 7

Bandirma Bordo>99¢Bahcesehir Koleji<1¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bandirma Bordo

Consensus Traders

Bandirma Bordo 40%

Total Value

$340.58

Combined PnL

$15.02

Smart Money Entry

62.3¢ → 100¢

+60% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidBandirma Bordo at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bandirma Bordo

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Bandirma Bordo100%

Bahcesehir Koleji0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bandirma Bordo2 traders

Total Value$339.57

Total Shares340

Combined PnL+$101.24

Bahcesehir Koleji3 traders

Total Value$1.01

Total Shares745

Combined PnL-$86.22

Bandirma Bordo — 40%Bahcesehir Koleji — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Bandirma Bordo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Bahcesehir Koleji) and the top 1000 (4 on Bandirma Bordo) disagree here.

sharpBandirma Bordo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrBahcesehir Koleji 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedBahcesehir Koleji 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Bandirma Bordo 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LO looppau	Bandirma Bordoavg 99.9¢	$172.24	$172.32	+$0.09	99% 10942-66 (11008)
NA NatoAlfista	Bandirma Bordoavg 23.6¢	$39.48	$167.25	+$101.15	50% 3874-3834 (7708)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Bahcesehir Kolejiavg 76¢	$74.04	$0.68	-$73.35	58% 41980-30479 (72459)
poshposhCTR<$100	Bahcesehir Kolejiavg 1.4¢	$8.69	$0.31	-$8.38	59% 10226-7214 (17440)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100	Bahcesehir Kolejiavg 42¢	$10.61	$0.01	-$4.49	85% 5348-927 (6275)

looppau

Bandirma Bordo

Invested

$172.24

Value

$172.32

PnL

+$0.09

Record

99%

10942-66 (11008)

NatoAlfista

Bandirma Bordo

Invested

$39.48

Value

$167.25

PnL

+$101.15

Record

50%

3874-3834 (7708)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Bahcesehir Koleji

Invested

$74.04

Value

$0.68

PnL

-$73.35

Record

58%

41980-30479 (72459)

poshposhCTR<$100

Bahcesehir Koleji

Invested

$8.69

Value

$0.31

PnL

-$8.38

Record

59%

10226-7214 (17440)

ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100

Bahcesehir Koleji

Invested

$10.61

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$4.49

Record

85%

5348-927 (6275)

Research grade

AvoidBandirma Bordo at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Bandirma Bordo

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Bandirma Bordo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Bahcesehir Koleji) and the top 1000 (4 on Bandirma Bordo) disagree here.

sharpBandirma Bordo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrBahcesehir Koleji 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedBahcesehir Koleji 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Bandirma Bordo 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bandirma Bordo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.