Telekom Baskets Bonn vs. Alba Berlin

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Telekom Baskets Bonn (63%) · Telekom Baskets Bonn at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 8

Telekom Baskets Bonn>99¢Alba Berlin<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Telekom Baskets Bonn

Consensus Traders

Telekom Baskets Bonn 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$0.77

Smart Money Entry

46.3¢ → 100¢

+116% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidTelekom Baskets Bonn at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Telekom Baskets Bonn

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Telekom Baskets Bonn100%

Alba Berlin0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Telekom Baskets Bonn5 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares2,034

Combined PnL+$101.12

Alba Berlin3 traders

Total Value$35.59

Total Shares411

Combined PnL-$100.35

Telekom Baskets Bonn — 63%Alba Berlin — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Telekom Baskets Bonnavg 40.4¢	$449.38	$511.79	+$62.4	50% 33888-33462 (67350)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Telekom Baskets Bonnavg 55.7¢	$404.38	$450.5	+$46.11	48% 1070-1175 (2245)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Telekom Baskets Bonnavg 53.4¢	$63.24	$61.92	-$1.32	57% 29247-21632 (50879)
└ Alba Berlin leg	Alba Berlinavg 48.5¢	$29.58	$32.94	+$3.36
└ Telekom Baskets Bonn leg	Telekom Baskets Bonnavg 53.4¢	$33.66	$28.98	-$4.68
VeryLucky888<$100	Telekom Baskets Bonnavg 53¢	$53	$46	-$7	58% 42718-31089 (73807)
poshposhCTR	Alba Berlinavg 34.5¢	$119.03	$25.9	-$93.13	58% 10691-7671 (18362)
PA panpidaras1<$100	Telekom Baskets Bonnavg 30¢	$19.5	$18.2	-$1.3	50% 209-205 (414)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Telekom Baskets Bonnavg 52¢	$15.6	$16.5	+$0.9	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Alba Berlinavg 46.1¢	$8.58	$9.66	+$1.08	53% 5677-5082 (10759)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100	Alba Berlinavg 50.1¢	$58.29	$0.03	-$8.31	85% 5899-1010 (6909)

SnakeBall

Telekom Baskets Bonn

Invested

$449.38

Value

$511.79

PnL

+$62.4

Record

50%

33888-33462 (67350)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Telekom Baskets Bonn

Invested

$404.38

Value

$450.5

PnL

+$46.11

Record

48%

1070-1175 (2245)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Telekom Baskets Bonn

Invested

$63.24

Value

$61.92

PnL

-$1.32

Record

57%

29247-21632 (50879)

Both legs:

Alba Berlin$29.5848.5¢+$3.36

Telekom Baskets Bonn$33.6653.4¢-$4.68

VeryLucky888<$100

Telekom Baskets Bonn

Invested

$53

Value

$46

PnL

-$7

Record

58%

42718-31089 (73807)

poshposhCTR

Alba Berlin

Invested

$119.03

Value

$25.9

PnL

-$93.13

Record

58%

10691-7671 (18362)

panpidaras1<$100

Telekom Baskets Bonn

Invested

$19.5

Value

$18.2

PnL

-$1.3

Record

50%

209-205 (414)

UpTheBlues<$100

Telekom Baskets Bonn

Invested

$15.6

Value

$16.5

PnL

+$0.9

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Alba Berlin

Invested

$8.58

Value

$9.66

PnL

+$1.08

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100

Alba Berlin

Invested

$58.29

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$8.31

Record

85%

5899-1010 (6909)

Research grade

AvoidTelekom Baskets Bonn at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Telekom Baskets Bonn

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Telekom Baskets Bonn wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.