Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (52%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Science City Jena vs. Fraport Skyliners: O/U 168.5
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 48¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Over
4
Over 100%
$1.5K
$138.44
45.1¢ → 48¢
+6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 48%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BA BayupatiCTR | Overavg 45.2¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$116.89 | 51% 219-209 (428) |
NA NatoAlfistaCTR | Overavg 45¢ | $202.86 | $216.38 | +$13.52 | 50% 3799-3761 (7560) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $67.86 | $72.38 | +$4.52 | 52% 3994-3637 (7631) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 45.7¢ | $68.5 | $1.65 | +$3.5 | 58% 41488-30106 (71594) |
Invested
$1,091.62
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$116.89
Record
51%
219-209 (428)
Invested
$202.86
Value
$216.38
PnL
+$13.52
Record
50%
3799-3761 (7560)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$67.86
Value
$72.38
PnL
+$4.52
Record
52%
3994-3637 (7631)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$68.5
Value
$1.65
PnL
+$3.5
Record
58%
41488-30106 (71594)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.