Rostock Seawolves vs. FC Bayern Munchen

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold FC Bayern Munchen (33%) · FC Bayern Munchen at 77¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 8

Rostock Seawolves24¢FC Bayern Munchen76¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

FC Bayern Munchen

Consensus Traders

FC Bayern Munchen 33%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

$492.39

Smart Money Entry

73.8¢ → 76.5¢

+4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidFC Bayern Munchen at 77%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FC Bayern Munchen

2 of 6 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Rostock Seawolves24%

FC Bayern Munchen77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FC Bayern Munchen2 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,799

Combined PnL+$294.33

Rostock Seawolves4 traders

Total Value$844

Total Shares3,339

Combined PnL+$198.06

FC Bayern Munchen — 33%Rostock Seawolves — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on FC Bayern Munchen. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFC Bayern Munchen 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrRostock Seawolves 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Rostock Seawolves 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	FC Bayern Munchenavg 74.2¢	$2.0K	$2.4K	+$331.51	48% 1065-1165 (2230)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Rostock Seawolvesavg 23.2¢	$526.95	$533.22	+$6.27	50% 33863-33445 (67308)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Rostock Seawolvesavg 29.7¢	$196.84	$246.1	-$39.76	50% 19450-19817 (39267)
└ Rostock Seawolves leg	Rostock Seawolvesavg 29.7¢	$117.61	$166.18	-$40.45
└ FC Bayern Munchen leg	FC Bayern Munchenavg 80¢	$110.23	$79.92	+$0.69
NO NotradecopyCTR	Rostock Seawolvesavg 19¢	$36.17	$217.01	+$180.84	49% 3939-4125 (8064)
PA panpidaras1	FC Bayern Munchenavg 70.5¢	$210.15	$172.97	-$37.18	51% 209-204 (413)
poshposhCTR<$100	Rostock Seawolvesavg 29.3¢	$56.18	$80.5	+$24.32	58% 10670-7656 (18326)
ARTEM-DZYUBAARB<$100	FC Bayern Munchenavg 66.5¢	$63.88	$62.6	-$1.28	85% 5885-1004 (6889)
└ Rostock Seawolves leg	Rostock Seawolvesavg 38.3¢	$30.63	$33.6	+$2.97
└ FC Bayern Munchen leg	FC Bayern Munchenavg 66.5¢	$33.25	$29	-$4.25
HRTradingCTR<$100	Rostock Seawolvesavg 34¢	$26.64	$13.28	-$13.36	53% 5640-5054 (10694)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

FC Bayern Munchen

Invested

$2,033.29

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$331.51

Record

48%

1065-1165 (2230)

SnakeBallCTR

Rostock Seawolves

Invested

$526.95

Value

$533.22

PnL

+$6.27

Record

50%

33863-33445 (67308)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Rostock Seawolves

Invested

$196.84

Value

$246.1

PnL

-$39.76

Record

50%

19450-19817 (39267)

Both legs:

Rostock Seawolves$117.6129.7¢-$40.45

FC Bayern Munchen$110.2380¢+$0.69

NotradecopyCTR

Rostock Seawolves

Invested

$36.17

Value

$217.01

PnL

+$180.84

Record

49%

3939-4125 (8064)

panpidaras1

FC Bayern Munchen

Invested

$210.15

Value

$172.97

PnL

-$37.18

Record

51%

209-204 (413)

poshposhCTR<$100

Rostock Seawolves

Invested

$56.18

Value

$80.5

PnL

+$24.32

Record

58%

10670-7656 (18326)

ARTEM-DZYUBAARB<$100

FC Bayern Munchen

Invested

$63.88

Value

$62.6

PnL

-$1.28

Record

85%

5885-1004 (6889)

Both legs:

Rostock Seawolves$30.6338.3¢+$2.97

FC Bayern Munchen$33.2566.5¢-$4.25

HRTradingCTR<$100

Rostock Seawolves

Invested

$26.64

Value

$13.28

PnL

-$13.36

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

Research grade

AvoidFC Bayern Munchen at 77%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

FC Bayern Munchen

2 of 6 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on FC Bayern Munchen. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFC Bayern Munchen 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrRostock Seawolves 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Rostock Seawolves 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FC Bayern Munchen wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.