Ratiopharm Ulm vs. EWE Baskets Oldenburg
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Ratiopharm Ulm (40%) · Ratiopharm Ulm at 100¢ · $151 held · ends Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
Ratiopharm Ulm
5
Ratiopharm Ulm 40%
$151.26
-$40.81
69.7¢ → 100¢
+43% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidRatiopharm Ulm at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Ratiopharm Ulm. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BA Bayupati | Ratiopharm Ulmavg 69.1¢ | $131.68 | $133.39 | +$1.7 | 51% 227-222 (449) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Ratiopharm Ulmavg 81.9¢ | $7.33 | $8.96 | +$1.62 | 53% 4792-4312 (9104) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | EWE Baskets Oldenburgavg 4¢ | $16.15 | $5.15 | -$10.99 | 48% 943-1015 (1958) |
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100 | EWE Baskets Oldenburgavg 26¢ | $24.31 | $3.74 | -$20.57 | 50% 3877-3837 (7714) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100 | EWE Baskets Oldenburgavg 42.5¢ | $37.58 | $0.03 | -$12.57 | 85% 5371-932 (6303) |
Invested
$131.68
Value
$133.39
PnL
+$1.7
Record
51%
227-222 (449)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$7.33
Value
$8.96
PnL
+$1.62
Record
53%
4792-4312 (9104)
Invested
$16.15
Value
$5.15
PnL
-$10.99
Record
48%
943-1015 (1958)
Invested
$24.31
Value
$3.74
PnL
-$20.57
Record
50%
3877-3837 (7714)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100Invested
$37.58
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$12.57
Record
85%
5371-932 (6303)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.