Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Phoenix Hagen, while the market favors SC RASTA Vechta (88%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Phoenix Hagen vs. SC RASTA Vechta
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Phoenix Hagen (75%) · Phoenix Hagen at 12¢ · $47 held · ends Nov 6
⚠️
Avoid
Phoenix Hagen
4
Phoenix Hagen 75%
$46.78
-$101.26
55.3¢ → 12¢
-78% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidPhoenix Hagen at 12%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors SC RASTA Vechta 88%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Phoenix Hagen. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Phoenix Hagenavg 55.8¢ | $215.75 | $24.01 | -$89.46 | 58% 41515-30150 (71665) |
 poshposh<$100 | SC RASTA Vechtaavg 87¢ | $17.45 | $17.41 | -$0.05 | 59% 9948-6921 (16869) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100 | Phoenix Hagenavg 47¢ | $11.75 | $3 | -$9.12 | 86% 5101-864 (5965) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Phoenix Hagenavg 78.3¢ | $4.99 | $2.36 | -$2.62 | 52% 4016-3659 (7675) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$215.75
Value
$24.01
PnL
-$89.46
Record
58%
41515-30150 (71665)
poshposh<$100Invested
$17.45
Value
$17.41
PnL
-$0.05
Record
59%
9948-6921 (16869)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100Invested
$11.75
Value
$3
PnL
-$9.12
Record
86%
5101-864 (5965)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$4.99
Value
$2.36
PnL
-$2.62
Record
52%
4016-3659 (7675)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
12.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.