Hamburg Towers vs. Mitteldeutscher BC

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Mitteldeutscher BC (63%) · Mitteldeutscher BC at 71¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 8

Hamburg Towers30¢Mitteldeutscher BC70¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Mitteldeutscher BC

Consensus Traders

Mitteldeutscher BC 63%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$232.3

Smart Money Entry

57.2¢ → 70.5¢

+23% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidMitteldeutscher BC at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mitteldeutscher BC

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Hamburg Towers30%

Mitteldeutscher BC71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mitteldeutscher BC5 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,600

Combined PnL+$338.69

Hamburg Towers3 traders

Total Value$201.39

Total Shares611

Combined PnL-$106.4

Mitteldeutscher BC — 63%Hamburg Towers — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Mitteldeutscher BC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMitteldeutscher BC 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpHamburg Towers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrMitteldeutscher BC 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Mitteldeutscher BC 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Mitteldeutscher BCavg 58.6¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$238.85	50% 33863-33445 (67308)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Mitteldeutscher BCavg 50.2¢	$198.02	$278.11	+$80.08	48% 1065-1167 (2232)
MY myxiCTR	Hamburg Towersavg 50¢	$222	$131.1	-$90.9	67% 378-183 (561)
poshposh<$100	Mitteldeutscher BCavg 58¢	$62.42	$75.87	+$13.45	58% 10670-7658 (18328)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100	Hamburg Towersavg 40¢	$36.27	$36.79	+$0.98	85% 5888-1004 (6892)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Mitteldeutscher BCavg 55¢	$28.93	$34.19	+$0.79	50% 3947-3930 (7877)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Mitteldeutscher BCavg 57¢	$27.36	$33.84	+$5.52	57% 29237-21622 (50859)
BE berlinskiesCTR<$100	Hamburg Towersavg 44¢	$49.98	$33.51	-$16.47	58% 5892-4319 (10211)

SnakeBall

Mitteldeutscher BC

Invested

$1,170.36

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$238.85

Record

50%

33863-33445 (67308)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Mitteldeutscher BC

Invested

$198.02

Value

$278.11

PnL

+$80.08

Record

48%

1065-1167 (2232)

myxiCTR

Hamburg Towers

Invested

$222

Value

$131.1

PnL

-$90.9

Record

67%

378-183 (561)

poshposh<$100

Mitteldeutscher BC

Invested

$62.42

Value

$75.87

PnL

+$13.45

Record

58%

10670-7658 (18328)

ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100

Hamburg Towers

Invested

$36.27

Value

$36.79

PnL

+$0.98

Record

85%

5888-1004 (6892)

NatoAlfista<$100

Mitteldeutscher BC

Invested

$28.93

Value

$34.19

PnL

+$0.79

Record

50%

3947-3930 (7877)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Mitteldeutscher BC

Invested

$27.36

Value

$33.84

PnL

+$5.52

Record

57%

29237-21622 (50859)

berlinskiesCTR<$100

Hamburg Towers

Invested

$49.98

Value

$33.51

PnL

-$16.47

Record

58%

5892-4319 (10211)

Research grade

AvoidMitteldeutscher BC at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Mitteldeutscher BC

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Mitteldeutscher BC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMitteldeutscher BC 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpHamburg Towers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrMitteldeutscher BC 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Mitteldeutscher BC 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mitteldeutscher BC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.