Chemnitz 99 vs. Riesen Ludwigsburg
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Chemnitz 99 (75%) · Chemnitz 99 at 69¢ · $125 held · ends Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
Chemnitz 99
4
Chemnitz 99 75%
$124.59
-$0.84
Research grade
AvoidChemnitz 99 at 69%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Chemnitz 99avg 69¢ | $69 | $69 | +$0 | 58% 42027-30514 (72541) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100 | Riesen Ludwigsburgavg 40.1¢ | $35.56 | $33.34 | -$2.22 | 85% 5371-932 (6303) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Chemnitz 99avg 69¢ | $11.73 | $11.73 | -$0 | 58% 28788-21225 (50013) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Chemnitz 99avg 59.9¢ | $9.14 | $10.52 | +$1.38 | 53% 4792-4312 (9104) |
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$69
Value
$69
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
42027-30514 (72541)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100Invested
$35.56
Value
$33.34
PnL
-$2.22
Record
85%
5371-932 (6303)
Invested
$11.73
Value
$11.73
PnL
-$0
Record
58%
28788-21225 (50013)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$9.14
Value
$10.52
PnL
+$1.38
Record
53%
4792-4312 (9104)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.