Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold San Martin de Corrientes, while the market favors Penarol (76%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Penarol vs. San Martin de Corrientes
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold San Martin de Corrientes (75%) · San Martin de Corrientes at 24¢ · $302 held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
San Martin de Corrientes
4
San Martin de Corrientes 75%
$302.36
$78.82
16.1¢ → 24¢
+49% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidSan Martin de Corrientes at 24%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Penarol 76%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 poshposhCTR | San Martin de Corrientesavg 15.2¢ | $93.66 | $147.75 | +$54.09 | 60% 9159-6104 (15263) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Penarolavg 74¢ | $79.32 | $80.46 | +$5.82 | 58% 40486-29261 (69747) |
MI mishipolisCTR<$100 | San Martin de Corrientesavg 18¢ | $51 | $68.16 | +$17.16 | 50% 4410-4341 (8751) |
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100 | San Martin de Corrientesavg 17¢ | $4.25 | $6 | +$1.75 | 48% 4423-4879 (9302) |
poshposhCTRInvested
$93.66
Value
$147.75
PnL
+$54.09
Record
60%
9159-6104 (15263)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$79.32
Value
$80.46
PnL
+$5.82
Record
58%
40486-29261 (69747)
Invested
$51
Value
$68.16
PnL
+$17.16
Record
50%
4410-4341 (8751)
Invested
$4.25
Value
$6
PnL
+$1.75
Record
48%
4423-4879 (9302)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
24.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.