Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Ferro Carril Oeste, while the market favors Gimnasia (60%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Gimnasia vs. Ferro Carril Oeste

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Ferro Carril Oeste (29%) · Ferro Carril Oeste at 41¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4

Gimnasia60¢Ferro Carril Oeste40¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Ferro Carril Oeste

Consensus Traders

Ferro Carril Oeste 29%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

-$186.03

Smart Money Entry

48.6¢ → 40.5¢

-17% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidFerro Carril Oeste at 41%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ferro Carril Oeste

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Gimnasia 60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Gimnasia60%

Ferro Carril Oeste41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ferro Carril Oeste2 traders

Total Value$870.39

Total Shares2,373

Combined PnL-$282.02

Gimnasia5 traders

Total Value$897.16

Total Shares1,470

Combined PnL+$95.99

Ferro Carril Oeste — 29%Gimnasia — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BA Bagwell306CTR	Ferro Carril Oesteavg 49.4¢	$988.91	$740	-$248.91	59% 3999-2836 (6835)
UP UpTheBlues	Gimnasiaavg 47.5¢	$392.38	$491.81	+$99.43	59% 44601-31003 (75604)
VeryLucky888	Gimnasiaavg 67¢	$201	$189	-$10.5	58% 40747-29469 (70216)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Ferro Carril Oesteavg 44.4¢	$165.37	$130.4	-$33.11	47% 2405-2688 (5093)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Gimnasiaavg 60.3¢	$94.43	$98.81	+$4.38	50% 32771-32328 (65099)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Gimnasiaavg 58.2¢	$57.01	$58.78	+$1.77	50% 12108-12315 (24423)
BA Bayupati<$100	Gimnasiaavg 64¢	$57.84	$58.75	+$0.9	51% 193-189 (382)

Bagwell306CTR

Ferro Carril Oeste

Invested

$988.91

Value

$740

PnL

-$248.91

Record

59%

3999-2836 (6835)

UpTheBlues

Gimnasia

Invested

$392.38

Value

$491.81

PnL

+$99.43

Record

59%

44601-31003 (75604)

VeryLucky888

Gimnasia

Invested

$201

Value

$189

PnL

-$10.5

Record

58%

40747-29469 (70216)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Ferro Carril Oeste

Invested

$165.37

Value

$130.4

PnL

-$33.11

Record

47%

2405-2688 (5093)

SnakeBall<$100

Gimnasia

Invested

$94.43

Value

$98.81

PnL

+$4.38

Record

50%

32771-32328 (65099)

LuckyLoo<$100

Gimnasia

Invested

$57.01

Value

$58.78

PnL

+$1.77

Record

50%

12108-12315 (24423)

Bayupati<$100

Gimnasia

Invested

$57.84

Value

$58.75

PnL

+$0.9

Record

51%

193-189 (382)

Research grade

AvoidFerro Carril Oeste at 41%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Ferro Carril Oeste

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Gimnasia 60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ferro Carril Oeste wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.7%

40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$134.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

234.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.