BC Slovan Bratislava vs. Krka
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold BC Slovan Bratislava (71%) · BC Slovan Bratislava at 100¢ · $266 held · ends Nov 8
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Avoid
BC Slovan Bratislava
7
BC Slovan Bratislava 71%
$266.22
-$16.17
74.3¢ → 100¢
+35% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidBC Slovan Bratislava at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LO looppau<$100 | BC Slovan Bratislavaavg 99.9¢ | $93.94 | $93.98 | +$0.05 | 99% 11171-71 (11242) |
UP UpTheBlues | BC Slovan Bratislavaavg 73.4¢ | $122.31 | $83.3 | -$39.01 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Krkaavg 25¢ | $23.15 | $46.3 | +$23.15 | 50% 19465-19831 (39296) |
PA panpidaras1<$100 | BC Slovan Bratislavaavg 37¢ | $22.19 | $27.59 | +$5.4 | 50% 209-205 (414) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | BC Slovan Bratislavaavg 75¢ | $15 | $10 | -$5 | 57% 29247-21632 (50879) |
 tradecraft<$100 | BC Slovan Bratislavaavg 67¢ | $4.75 | $3.55 | -$1.21 | 51% 6082-5802 (11884) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Krkaavg 35¢ | $1.05 | $1.5 | +$0.45 | 53% 5677-5082 (10759) |
Invested
$93.94
Value
$93.98
PnL
+$0.05
Record
99%
11171-71 (11242)
Invested
$122.31
Value
$83.3
PnL
-$39.01
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
Invested
$23.15
Value
$46.3
PnL
+$23.15
Record
50%
19465-19831 (39296)
Invested
$22.19
Value
$27.59
PnL
+$5.4
Record
50%
209-205 (414)
Invested
$15
Value
$10
PnL
-$5
Record
57%
29247-21632 (50879)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$4.75
Value
$3.55
PnL
-$1.21
Record
51%
6082-5802 (11884)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.05
Value
$1.5
PnL
+$0.45
Record
53%
5677-5082 (10759)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.