BC Dubai vs. Zadar

1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold BC Dubai (33%) · BC Dubai at 91¢ · $329 held · ends Nov 9

BC Dubai91¢Zadar9¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

BC Dubai

Consensus Traders

BC Dubai 33%

Total Value

$328.66

Combined PnL

$6.67

Research grade

AvoidBC Dubai at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

BC Dubai

1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

BC Dubai91%

Zadar9%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

BC Dubai1 trader

Total Value$255.96

Total Shares281

Combined PnL-$1.41

Zadar2 traders

Total Value$72.7

Total Shares808

Combined PnL+$8.08

BC Dubai — 33%Zadar — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388	BC Dubaiavg 91¢	$255.96	$255.96	-$1.41	55% 1810-1505 (3315)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Zadaravg 8¢	$58.4	$65.7	+$7.3	49% 13479-14174 (27653)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Zadaravg 8¢	$6.22	$7	+$0.78	58% 43600-31711 (75311)

VD721lsj4938Dk388

BC Dubai

Invested

$255.96

Value

$255.96

PnL

-$1.41

Record

55%

1810-1505 (3315)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Zadar

Invested

$58.4

Value

$65.7

PnL

+$7.3

Record

49%

13479-14174 (27653)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Zadar

Invested

$6.22

Value

PnL

+$0.78

Record

58%

43600-31711 (75311)

Research grade

AvoidBC Dubai at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

BC Dubai

1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that BC Dubai wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.4%

91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.