Bitcoin Up or Down on October 30?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Down (100%) · Down at 89¢ · $15K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Down
6
Down 100%
$14.9K
-$39.06
87.1¢ → 88.5¢
+2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Downavg 88.1¢ | $8.3K | $8.6K | +$361.43 | 65% 2367-1271 (3638) |
0X 0xDB5 | Downavg 91¢ | $2.2K | $2.1K | -$47.75 | 59% 2174-1531 (3705) |
EA easypredict | Downavg 75.6¢ | $2.2K | $1.8K | -$408.17 | 57% 265-203 (468) |
GO gobblewobble | Downavg 86.9¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$25.45 | 59% 860-598 (1458) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Downavg 90.5¢ | $616.19 | $636.5 | +$20.31 | 60% 1038-705 (1743) |
AN Anon455 | Downavg 77¢ | $282.36 | $292.04 | +$9.68 | 56% 2788-2211 (4999) |
Invested
$8,261.05
Value
$8.6K
PnL
+$361.43
Record
65%
2367-1271 (3638)
Invested
$2,158.71
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$47.75
Record
59%
2174-1531 (3705)
Invested
$2,165.61
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$408.17
Record
57%
265-203 (468)
Invested
$1,476.69
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$25.45
Record
59%
860-598 (1458)
Invested
$616.19
Value
$636.5
PnL
+$20.31
Record
60%
1038-705 (1743)
Invested
$282.36
Value
$292.04
PnL
+$9.68
Record
56%
2788-2211 (4999)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.