Bitcoin Up or Down on October 29?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Up (33%) · Up at 76¢ · $697 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Up
6
Up 33%
$697.43
$165.37
66.2¢ → 75.5¢
+14% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUp at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN Anon455 | Upavg 76.3¢ | $347.3 | $331.97 | -$15.33 | 56% 2631-2086 (4717) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR | Downavg 38.6¢ | $206.13 | $130.76 | -$75.36 | 65% 2348-1268 (3616) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Upavg 50.4¢ | $242.42 | $122.42 | +$247.68 | 59% 1023-702 (1725) |
BO bosonaCTR<$100 | Downavg 35¢ | $70 | $69 | -$1 | 55% 49290-39544 (88834) |
AL almachCTR<$100 | Downavg 22.1¢ | $16.07 | $25.05 | +$8.98 | 55% 48032-39638 (87670) |
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100 | Downavg 33.7¢ | $17.81 | $18.23 | +$0.42 | 55% 50080-40707 (90787) |
Invested
$347.3
Value
$331.97
PnL
-$15.33
Record
56%
2631-2086 (4717)
Invested
$206.13
Value
$130.76
PnL
-$75.36
Record
65%
2348-1268 (3616)
Invested
$242.42
Value
$122.42
PnL
+$247.68
Record
59%
1023-702 (1725)
Invested
$70
Value
$69
PnL
-$1
Record
55%
49290-39544 (88834)
Invested
$16.07
Value
$25.05
PnL
+$8.98
Record
55%
48032-39638 (87670)
Invested
$17.81
Value
$18.23
PnL
+$0.42
Record
55%
50080-40707 (90787)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.